In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change‐point analysis and a sequential t‐test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

The (Lower) Lake of Zurich provides an ideal system for studying the long-term impact of environmental change on deep-water hypoxia because of its sensitivity to climatic forcing, its history of eutrophication and subsequent oligotrophication, and the quality and length of its data set. Based on 39 years (1972-2010) of measured profiles of temperature, oxygen concentration and phosphorus (P) concentration, the potentially confounding effects of oligotrophication and climatic forcing on the occurrence and extent of deep-water hypoxia in the lake were investigated. The time-series of Nürnberg's hypoxic factor (HF) for the lake can be divided into three distinct segments: (i) a segment of consistently low HF from 1972 to the late-1980s climate regime shift (CRS); (ii) a transitional segment between the late-1980s CRS and approximately 2000 within which the HF was highly variable; and (iii) a segment of consistently high HF thereafter. The increase in hypoxia during the study period was not a consequence of a change in trophic status, as the lake underwent oligotrophication as a result of reduced external P loading during this time. Instead, wavelet analysis suggests that changes in the lake's mixing regime, initiated by the late-1980s CRS, ultimately led to a delayed but abrupt decrease in the deep-water oxygen concentration, resulting in a general expansion of the hypoxic zone in autumn. Even after detrending to remove long-term effects, the concentration of soluble reactive P in the bottom water of the lake was highly correlated with various measures of hypoxia, providing quantitative evidence supporting the probable effect of hypoxia on internal P loading. Such climate-induced, ecosystem-scale changes, which may result in undesirable effects such as a decline in water quality and a reduction in coldwater fish habitats, provide further evidence for the vulnerability of large temperate lakes to predicted increases in global air temperature.