Interannual climate variability patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon result in climate and environmental anomaly conditions in specific regions worldwide that directly favor outbreaks and/or amplification of variety of diseases of public health concern including chikungunya, hantavirus, Rift Valley fever, cholera, plague, and Zika. We analyzed patterns of some disease outbreaks during the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event in relation to climate anomalies derived from satellite measurements. Disease outbreaks in multiple El Niño-connected regions worldwide (including Southeast Asia, Tanzania, western US, and Brazil) followed shifts in rainfall, temperature, and vegetation in which both drought and flooding occurred in excess (14–81% precipitation departures from normal). These shifts favored ecological conditions appropriate for pathogens and their vectors to emerge and propagate clusters of diseases activity in these regions. Our analysis indicates that intensity of disease activity in some ENSO-teleconnected regions were approximately 2.5–28% higher during years with El Niño events than those without. Plague in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cholera in Tanzania were significantly associated with above normal rainfall (p < 0.05); while dengue in Brazil and southeast Asia were significantly associated with above normal land surface temperature (p < 0.05). Routine and ongoing global satellite monitoring of key climate variable anomalies calibrated to specific regions could identify regions at risk for emergence and propagation of disease vectors. Such information can provide sufficient lead-time for outbreak prevention and potentially reduce the burden and spread of ecologically coupled diseases.

Most studies investigating the effect of childhood trauma on the brain are retrospective and mainly focus on maltreatment, whereas different types of trauma exposure such as growing up in a violent neighborhood, as well as developmental stage, could have differential effects on brain structure and function. The current magnetic resonance imaging study assessed the effect of trauma exposure broadly and violence exposure more specifically, as well as developmental stage on the fear neurocircuitry in 8‐ to 14‐year‐old children and adolescents (N = 69). We observed reduced hippocampal and increased amygdala volume with increasing levels of trauma exposure. Second, higher levels of violence exposure were associated with increased activation in the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex during emotional response inhibition. This association was specifically observed in children younger than 10 years. Finally, increased functional connectivity between the amygdala and brainstem was associated with higher levels of violence exposure. Based on the current findings, it could be hypothesized that trauma exposure during childhood results in structural changes that are associated with later risk for psychiatric disorders. At the same time, it could be postulated that growing up in an unsafe environment leads the brain to functionally adapt to this situation in a way that promotes survival, where the long‐term costs or consequences of these adaptations are largely unknown and an area for future investigations.

A Just–Pope production function is employed to investigate the effects of historic weather changes on hard red spring wheat yield variability in Manitoba. Field-level data on wheat yield, proportion of wheat seeded area, and fertilizer inputs from the Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation were employed to determine how temperature and precipitation affect mean wheat yield and production risk, and how projected climate scenarios impact yield variability in heterogeneous risk areas of Manitoba. Variety richness increases average yield and reduces yield variance while varieties protected by plant breeders’ rights increase yield variance. Phosphorus fertilizer is positively associated with average wheat yield while total precipitation is shown to negatively affect mean yield and positively impact yield variability. June precipitation matters while June and July temperatures negatively affect yield. Projected climate change is expected to increase yield variability in both the medium (2034–2050) and long term (2079–2095), both under low- and high-carbon scenarios with production variance effects differing across crop districts. Adaptation strategies may be required to mitigate yield risk effects of climate change resulting in late seeding decisions from increased spring precipitation.

No abstract

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.