The article examines the dynamic dependence structure and risk spillover between the future market of energy commodities and Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) stock markets for different market conditions. The study used copula-based multivariate GARCH model, or in short C-MGARCH model, to explore the conditional correlation by multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (MGARCH) and the remaining dependence by different copula models. Our results provide significant positive dynamic dependency among crude oil markets (natural gas market) and BRICS stock markets. We then explore the financial implications of volatility spillovers regarding portfolio risk management through an analysis of risk spillovers from energy market to BRICS countries using the value at Risk (VaR), conditional value at risk (CVaR) and delta CVaR. Our findings support the existence of significant risk spillover between crude oil markets (natural gas market) and BRICS stock markets. The presence of volatility spillover among oil prices, natural gas prices and BRICS stock market implies that oil market information (natural gas market information) enhances the volatility forecast in stock markets. Consequently, investors must take oil markets and natural gas markets into account at the time of financial portfolios structuring and in improving their hedging strategies.
This article aims to analyse the hedging, diversifier and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin for the US Dollar Index (USDI). We explore the long-term relationship between USDI and Bitcoin by estimating a Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model with two regimes. Thus, the data used cover the period from 18 January 2010 to 30 June 2017 for both USDI and Bitcoin. The empirical findings based on the analysis of the MS-AR model report that investing in Bitcoin involves more benefits than USDI even if the economy is in a recession. However, by examining Bitcoin and USDI volatility, the research findings underline positive dependency between the two. Such results denote that Bitcoin does not act as a hedge, and not even as a safe haven, against USDI. We found that Bitcoin is merely a diversifier for USDI. Accordingly, the outcomes will help investors and portfolio risk managers to make more up-to-date investment analyses and decisions.
In this paper, we examine the effect of the gold price on the American financial market. In particular, we analyse the impact of gold price on dollar exchange rate and returns of the American banks. Methodologically, we use a unified approach based on multi‐models not only to examine the gold price and U.S. market nexus but also to highlight the dynamics of such relationship over the period December 19, 1994–June 30, 2017. We show that a long‐relationship between gold price, dollar exchange rate and U.S. bank returns is well documented. As well, the behaviour and dynamics of such relationship are characterized by some salient features. In particular, the nonlinear adjustment of gold price against the U.S. financial market is well documented, implying that gold price plays a substantial role in creating a pressure on the dollar exchange rate and U.S. banks returns. Such findings could provide interesting insights for policymakers and investors.
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