The aim of this study was to elucidate the lifelong disease progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with biomarker changes and identify their influencing factors, by utilizing a new analysis method, Statistical Restoration of Fragmented Time-course (SReFT). Individual patient data (n = 1025) participating in the Study to Understand Mortality and MorbidITy (SUMMIT, NCT01313676), which was collected within the observational period of 4 years, were analyzed. The SReFT analysis suggested that scores of St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire and COPD assessment test, representative scores of the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) questionnaire, increased consistently for 30 years of disease progression, which was not detected by conventional analysis with a linear mixed effect model. It was estimated by the SReFT analysis that normalized forced expiratory volume in one second for age, sex, and body size (%FEV1) reduced for the initial 10 years from the onset of the disease but thereafter remained constant. The analysis of HRQOL scores and lung functions suggested that smoking cessation slowed COPD progression by approximately half and that exacerbation accelerated it considerably. In conclusion, this retrospective study utilizing SReFT elucidated the progression of COPD over 30 years and associated quantitative changes in the HRQOL scores and lung functions.

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