[1] Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo-fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming. , et al. (2012), Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 26, GB4007,
This article offers a reconstruction of the vegetation and climate of the southwestern Siberian Baraba forest-steppe area during the last ca. 8000 years. The analysis of palynological data from the sediment core of Lake Bolshie Toroki using quantitative methods has made it possible to reconstruct changes of the dominant types of vegetation and mean July air temperatures. Coniferous forests grew in the vicinity of the lake, and mean July air temperatures were similar to present-day ones between 7.9 and 7.0 kyr BP. The warmest and driest climate occurred at 7.0e5.0 kyr BP. At that time, the region had open steppe landscapes; birch groves began to spread. A cooling trend is seen after 5.5 kyr BP, when forest-steppe began to emerge. Steppe communities started to dominate again after 1.5 kyr BP. Mean July air temperatures lower than now are reconstructed for the period of 1.9e1 kyr BP, and then the temperatures became similar to present-day ones. Comparing the archaeological data on the types of economy of the population which inhabited the Baraba forest-steppe with the data on changes in the natural environment revealed a connection between the gradual transition from hunting and fishing to livestock breeding and the development of forest-steppe landscapes with a decrease in the area covered by forests. The development of the forest-steppe as an ecotonic landscape starting around 5 kyr BP might have contributed to the coexistence of several archaeological cultures with different types of economy on the same territory.
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