In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6 733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12 050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10-80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within ±45• in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log(CME mass) ∝ 0.68×log(flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log(CME mass) ∝ 0.33×log(flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log(CME mass) ∝ 0.70× log(flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ≈10 −7 −10 −4 W m −2 .

[1] The Wang-Sheeley-Arge solar wind model makes use of coupled potential field source surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to reconstruct the coronal magnetic field on the basis of the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and a 1D kinematic code to propagate the solar wind to 1 AU. The source surface serves as the outer boundary of the PFSS model and the inner boundary of the SCS model. Known discontinuities arise in the tangential components of the magnetic field across this surface owing to differences in the imposed boundary conditions (Wang et al., 1998). Here we introduce a more flexible coupling between the two models, which considerably reduces the discontinuous behavior of the magnetic field across the model interface surface, to investigate the effects and importance of these kinks on the accuracy of the model's solar wind speed predictions at 1 AU. A detailed analysis of select Carrington rotations shows that removing the kinks can lead to changes in connectivity, creating different source regions for the solar wind. These changes lead to significantly improved predictions of solar wind structures at 1 AU some of the time, but most of the time, the kinks do not affect the predicted solar wind speed. This improvement is born out statistically by increases in the prediction skill scores of both solar wind velocity (1.7%) and interplanetary magnetic field polarity (1.4%) at 1 AU.

The Balloon Array for Radiation belt Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) mission of opportunity working in tandem with the Van Allen Probes was designed to study the loss of radiation belt electrons to the ionosphere and upper atmosphere. BARREL is also sensitive to X‐rays from other sources. During the second BARREL campaign, the Sun produced an X‐class flare followed by a solar energetic particle event (SEP) associated with the same active region. Two days later on 9 January 2014, the shock generated by the coronal mass ejection (CME) originating from the active region hits the Earth while BARREL was in a close conjunction with the Van Allen Probes. Time History Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite observed the impact of the interplanetary CME (ICME) shock near the magnetopause, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) were on either side of the BARREL/Van Allen Probe array. The solar interplanetary magnetic field was not ideally oriented to cause a significant geomagnetic storm, but compression from the shock impact led to the loss of radiation belt electrons. We propose that an azimuthal electric field impulse generated by magnetopause compression caused inward electron transport and minimal loss. This process also drove chorus waves, which were responsible for most of the precipitation observed outside the plasmapause. Observations of hiss inside the plasmapause explain the absence of loss at this location. ULF waves were found to be correlated with the structure of the precipitation. We demonstrate how BARREL can monitor precipitation following an ICME‐shock impact at Earth in a cradle‐to‐grave view; from flare, to SEP, to electron precipitation.

[1] It took the solar polar passage of Ulysses in the early 1990s to establish the global structure of the solar wind speed during solar minimum. However, it remains unclear if the solar wind is composed of two distinct populations of solar wind from different sources (e.g., closed loops which open up to produce the slow solar wind) or if the fast and slow solar wind rely on the superradial expansion of the magnetic field to account for the observed solar wind speed variation. We investigate the solar wind in the inner corona using the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model incorporating a new empirical magnetic topology-velocity relationship calibrated for use at 0.1 AU. In this study the empirical solar wind speed relationship was determined by using Helios perihelion observations, along with results from Riley et al. (2003) and Schwadron et al. (2005) as constraints. The new relationship was tested by using it to drive the ENLIL 3-D MHD solar wind model and obtain solar wind parameters at Earth (1.0 AU) and Ulysses (1.4 AU). The improvements in speed, its variability, and the occurrence of high-speed enhancements provide confidence that the new velocity relationship better determines the solar wind speed in the outer corona (0.1 AU). An analysis of this improved velocity field within the WSA model suggests the existence of two distinct mechanisms of the solar wind generation, one for fast and one for slow solar wind, implying that a combination of present theories may be necessary to explain solar wind observations.

[1] The WSA-ENLIL model predicts significant evolution of the solar wind speed. Along a flux tube the solar wind speed at 1.0 AU and beyond is found to be significantly altered from the solar wind speed in the outer corona at 0.1 AU, with most of the change occurring within a few tenths of an AU from the Sun. The evolution of the solar wind speed is most pronounced during solar minimum for solar wind with observed speeds at 1.0 AU between 400 and 500 km/s, while the fastest and slowest solar wind experiences little acceleration or deceleration. Solar wind ionic charge state observations made near 1.0 AU during solar minimum are found to be consistent with a large fraction of the intermediatespeed solar wind having been accelerated or decelerated from slower or faster speeds. This paper sets the groundwork for understanding the evolution of wind speed with distance, which is critical for interpreting the solar wind composition observations near Earth and throughout the inner heliosphere. We show from composition observations that the intermediate-speed solar wind (400-500 km/s) represents a mix of what was originally fast and slow solar wind, which implies a more bimodal solar wind in the corona than observed at 1.0 AU.