В развитии ряда международных конфликтов последних десятилетий существовал потенциальный риск применения ядерного оружия. В статье анализируются и систематизируются факторы и меры, позволившие предотвратить эскалацию конфликтов до “ядерного порога”, чреватого риском катастрофических последствий в случае его преодоления. Обсуждается возможность и вероятность избежать ядерной эскалации из-за несанкционированных действий, ошибок, технических сбоев и неверной интерпретации действий потенциального противника. Рассматриваются механизмы деэскалации военно-политических инцидентов, комплекс сложившихся мер доверия и обеспечения безопасности. Выявляется их применимость в современных условиях, значимость как в контексте сложившихся отношений по линии Россия-Запад/НАТО, так и в долгосрочной (в масштабах десятилетий) перспективе.

Russian-American cooperation on the Syria issue is one of the most interesting and controversial subjects in international relations today. It reflects the complexity of a situation in which Russia actively challenges the US over the character and structure of the global system while also inviting it to cooperate in areas of mutual interest. In this context, cooperation itself takes the form of competition. Since the start of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, Russian-American relations have been in a state of confrontation. Given the difference in the two states' might and international status, this confrontation is clearly asymmetric. Having failed to find its place in the US-centered global system in the 25 years after the end of the Cold War, Russia shifted toward defending its interests and openly challenging US global dominance. Many compare the current Russian-American confrontation to the Cold War, and some actually refer to it as the New Cold War. Although some important similarities do exist, here the conditions of the ongoing struggle, its goals and methods are materially different from the situation of the 1940-1980s. Drawing too close parallels between the past and present situation are wrong, both on an analytical and political level. The Russian-American confrontation is not absolute. Both sides have important goals that can be achieved only if they cooperate. These interests include preventing nuclear war, containing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and 9 Obama, Putin spar over Syria, Reuters, 29 Sep. 2015, . 10 Speech by Vladimir Putin at the plenary meeting of the 70th session of the UN General Assembly, 28 Sep. 2015, .

The article is devoted to the analysis of the directions of the development of the regional missile defense potentials, as well as of the factors encouraging their creation. The appearance of such potentials, in their turn, develops stimulus for active attempts in implementation plans of making operational the ballistic missile defense systems. The article contains the expert’s conclusions on the existing and perspective regional BMD systems.

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