Dr D'Souza had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis. Study concept and design: D'Souza, Fakhry.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for a growing proportion of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCCs) among men and White individuals. Whether similar trends apply to women, non-Whites, and non-oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (non-OPSCCs) is unknown. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis combining 2 multi-institutional case series of incident head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) cases. Incident HNSCCs from 1995 to 2012 were enrolled retrospectively using banked tumor samples and medical record abstraction. Incident HNSCCs from 2013 to 2019 were enrolled prospectively. The prevalence of tumor HPV biomarkers was tested over 3 time periods (1995-2003, 2004-2012, and 2013-2019). Centralized testing was done for p16 immunohistochemistry (p16) and oncogenic HPV in situ hybridization (ISH). RESULTS: A total of 1209 incident cases of HNSCC were included. Prevalence of p16-and ISH-positive tumors increased significantly for oropharynx cancers over time. The majority were positive after 2013 for White patients (p16, 92%; P < .001; ISH 94%; P < .001), Black patients (p16, 72%; P = .021; ISH 67%; P = .011), and Hispanic patients (p16, 100%; P = .04; ISH 100%; P = .013). For women with OPSCC, the prevalence of p16-and ISH-positive tumors increased significantly to 82% (P < .001) and 78% (P = .004), respectively. For non-OPSCCs, there was increased p16 and ISH positivity overall with 24% p16 and 16% ISH positivity in the most recent time period (P < .001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of OPSCCs in US tertiary care centers are now p16 and ISH positive for all sex and race groups. In some populations in the United States, 91% of OPSCCs are now caused by HPV. Few non-OPSCCs are p16 and ISH positive.

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV)‐related oropharyngeal cancer screening is being explored in research studies, but strategies to identify an appropriate population are not established. The authors evaluated whether a screening population could be enriched for participants with oncogenic HPV biomarkers using risk factors for oral HPV. Methods Participants were enrolled at Johns Hopkins Hospitals and Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine. Eligible participants were either men aged 30 years or older who had two or more lifetime oral sex partners and a personal history of anogenital dysplasia/cancer or partners of patients who had HPV‐related cancer. Oral rinse and serum samples were tested for oncogenic HPV DNA, RNA, and E6 or E7 antibodies, respectively. Participants with any biomarker were considered at‐risk. Results Of 1108 individuals, 7.3% had any oncogenic oral HPV DNA, and 22.9% had serum antibodies for oncogenic HPV E6 or E7. Seventeen participants (1.5%) had both oral and blood biomarkers. HPV type 16 (HPV16) biomarkers were rarer, detected in 3.7% of participants, including 20 with oral HPV16 DNA and 22 with HPV16 E6 serum antibodies (n = 1 had both). In adjusted analysis, living with HIV (adjusted odds ratio, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.60–4.40) and older age (66–86 vs. 24–45 years; adjusted odds ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.07–2.70) were significant predictors of being at risk. Compared with the general population, the prevalence of oral HPV16 (1.8% vs. 0.9%), any oncogenic oral HPV DNA (7.3% vs. 3.5%), and HPV16 E6 antibodies (2.2% vs. 0.3%) was significantly elevated. Conclusions Enrichment by the eligibility criteria successfully identified a population with higher biomarker prevalence, including HPV16 biomarkers, that may be considered for screening trials. Most in this group are still expected to have a low risk of oropharyngeal cancer.

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