We investigate the short-term effects of COVID-19 on labor market flows and how they are mediated by labor market policy. Using Italian administrative data on a sample of active contracts between 2009 and the second quarter of 2020, we show that, before the pandemic, a higher share of female compared to male, young compared to old and low educated compared to high educated workers is employed in non-essential activities. When we look at the change in hirings and separations, from the 9th week of 2020 - the time when first cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were recorded -, we find a pronounced drop in hirings and endings of fixed-term contracts. Layoffs and quits increase after the 9th week, and then decline significantly, reflecting the effects of government intervention. The lifting of the lockdown triggers a slow recovery of labor market flows. Young workers, those on temporary contracts, low-educated workers, those employed in the South and those with no opportunities of working from home experience a greater decline in separation probability, indicating that government policy partly protected them from the labor market impact of the recession. The decline in the separation probability for women is lower than that for men. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-021-09522-610.1007/s10888-021-09522-6.

No abstract

No abstract

This paper studies the effect of school re-openings and closures on the spread of Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. Exploiting different re-opening dates across regions after the summer break 2020, I show that early opening regions experience on average 1,900 more cases per day in the 40 days fol-lowing school re-openings compared with late opening ones. However, the uncertainty around the estimates is large and suggests a wide dispersion in the effects of school re-openings on Sars-Cov-2 transmission. I also study the effect of school closures in Campania, one of the big-gest regions in Southern Italy. Using a synthetic control approach, I show that school closures are associated with lower case numbers relative to the counterfactual group, particularly in younger age groups. In contrast, I find no significant effects on older age groups, who are more likely to require hospitalization. Finally, exploiting survey data on incidence rates in schools, I provide descriptive evidence on the increased incidence among teachers and students relative to the general population, following school re-openings.

No abstract