We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

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This book has been a long time in the making and many people helped to make it possible. My interest in cinema history began as an undergraduate student at the University of Sheffield and was then developed during an MA at Queen's University Belfast. I then furthered this interest in the doctoral thesis from which this book emerged. I am grateful to all the students and staff who encouraged (or at least tolerated) my enthusiasm for historical cinemas.I wish to thank the late Keith Jeffery for his help during my MA and for his encouragement in the PhD application process. My PhD supervisor Sean O'Connell has been very generous with his advice, guidance and support. Since completing my PhD, I have received support from many academic colleagues both at Queen's University Belfast and on the European Cinema Audiences project.I have been extremely fortunate that many intelligent people have read part or all the manuscript. I would like to thank Kieran Connell, Ida Milne, Tim Somers, Conor Campbell, Stuart Irwin, Ryan Mallon and Jack Crangle for kindly reading parts of my PhD thesis. My examiners, Melvyn Stokes and Fearghal McGarry, offered positive feedback and encouraged me to convert the thesis into a monograph. One of the great benefits of publishing in the New Historical Perspectives series has been the guidance, mentoring and support of several talented historians. John Sedgwick, Penny Summerfield, Heather Shore and Robert James all read a draft of my monograph and offered suggestions for improvement. Their advice and editorial guidance has undoubtedly made this a far better book than it might have been. I am also indebted to everyone at the Royal Historical Society,

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This article assesses the impact of television ownership on cinema attendance in postwar Northern Ireland. It downplays a monocausal relationship between cinema and television, and emphasises the range of social, economic and political factors that led to cinema closures. While the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II acted as a catalyst for television ownership, it did not fundamentally alter patterns of cinema attendance. This research counters claims that cinema exhibitors were unresponsive to population shifts and examines the relatively large number of cinemas that opened in Northern Ireland in the 1950s. It then examines the impact of commercial television and documents the reasons for cinema closures in Northern Ireland's two largest cities: Belfast and Derry.