For many years the EU countries in Turkey's foreign trade is seen as the main trading partners. However, due to particularly in energy and raw material trade, shares of countries that are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), especially the Russian Federation and China. also increased in the foreign trade of Turkey. The main purpose of the study is to discuss the comparative view of EU and SCO in the foreign trade of Turkey which goals to be an economic power in its region and reveal the effectiveness of trade with these two trading blocks for Turkey's economic growth. In the study, data from 6 EU countries and 6 SCO member countries with the highest transaction volume between the years of 2000-2017 were used. Place of 12 countries that considired approximately 42% in the foreign trade of Turkey. The results of the analysis of both trade blocs have been considered to be very important for Turkey's economy. Trading (import-export) both with EU and SCO countries influence Turkey's economic growth and variables in both the short and long term shows the presence of a meaningful relationship. Economic growth and foreign trade data show that there is a bi-directional causality between the two trading blocks.

In this study, the effects of economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and trade openness on ecological footprint for Turkey were investigated. By using the annual data for the period 1980-2016, the short- and long-term relationship with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was examined. In addition, a prediction model is presented with the Multivariate Gray Prediction Model (NMGM) method. According to the findings obtained from the ARDL model, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production have a positive effect of 0.166, 0.1431 and 0.1118, respectively, on the ecological footprint in the long run. In the short run, economic growth, renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production has the same effect of 0.1941, 0.1673 and 0.1308 on the ecological footprint. In addition, no effect of trade openness on the ecological footprint has been detected, both in the long and short run. The originality of this study is to investigate the short- and long-term effects of economic growth and trade openness on the ecological footprint, in addition to the amount of renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production in Turkey, using the ARDL model. In addition, another originality of this study is a dynamic evaluation of the ecological footprint for Turkey and the determination of the impact values of the variables that affect the ecological footprint. ARIMA models, in which the dependent variable is estimated with its own past values, are generally used as estimation models. Likewise, univariate gray estimation models also make estimations with the dependent variable's own past values. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of a gray estimation model, in which the variables that have been shown to have a significant short- and long-term relationship with ARDL are also included in the model.

No abstract

In this study, the effects of economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production and trade openness on ecological footprint for Turkey were investigated. By using the annual data for the period 1980–2016, the short- and long-term relationship with the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was examined. In addition, a prediction model is presented with the Multivariate Gray Prediction Model (NMGM) method. According to the findings obtained from the ARDL model, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy production have a positive effect of 0.166, 0.1431 and 0.1118, respectively, on the ecological footprint in the long run. In the short run, economic growth, renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production has the same effect of 0.1941, 0.1673 and 0.1308 on the ecological footprint. In addition, no effect of trade openness on the ecological footprint has been detected, both in the long and short run. The originality of this study is to investigate the short- and long-term effects of economic growth and trade openness on the ecological footprint, in addition to the amount of renewable energy production and non-renewable energy production in Turkey, using the ARDL model. In addition, another originality of this study is a dynamic evaluation of the ecological footprint for Turkey and the determination of the impact values of the variables that affect the ecological footprint. ARIMA models, in which the dependent variable is estimated with its own past values, are generally used as estimation models. Likewise, univariate gray estimation models also make estimations with the dependent variable's own past values. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of a gray estimation model, in which the variables that have been shown to have a significant short- and long-term relationship with ARDL are also included in the model.

In this study, the terms of trade of manufactured products, which have a very important role in Turkey's foreign trade, have been calculated for the period of 1982-2017. For this purpose initially place of manufacturing industry in Turkey's economy have been examined after terms of trade of Turkey have been calculated by using manufacturing industry products' export price index, import price index, import quantity index and export quantity index. When the general terms of foreign trade terms of manufacturing products are examined, it is seen that the terms of trade of net change and gross exchange terms of trade have been developed for some years against the country and for some years in favor of the country, but income trade terms have increased constantly in favor of the country except for 2009.