A human outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) infections occurred in 2010 in central Macedonia, northern Greece. Most cases were observed close to four rivers forming a large Delta, a major Mediterranean wetland. WNV lineage 2 sequences were obtained from two pools of Culex pipiens mosquitoes trapped in sites where encephalitis cases occurred a few days before the trapping. The Greek strain showed the highest homology to Hungarian and South African strains, differing from the Russian WNV lineage 2 strain, which suggests that at least two lineage 2 strains have been introduced and established in Europe, causing severe disease to humans.

a b s t r a c tIn the summer of 2010 an epidemic of West Nile virus (WNV) occurred in Central Macedonia, Greece, with 197 human neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases. In the following years the virus spread to new areas, with a total of 76 WNND cases in 2011, and 109 WNND cases in 2012 (14 and 12 WNND cases, respectively, in Central Macedonia). We established a surveillance system based on serological testing of domestic pigeons, using cELISA confirmed by serum neutralization test. In Central Macedonia, pigeon seroprevalence was 54% (95% CI: 49-59%) and 31% (95% CI: 24-37%) at the end of the 2010 and 2011 epidemic seasons, respectively. One serum was positive for neutralizing antibodies directed against Usutu virus. Pigeon WNV seroprevalence and incidence rates of human WNND after the 2010 epidemic were positively correlated ( = 0.94, at the regional unit level), while in 2011 the correlation ( = 0.56) was not statistically significant, possibly due to small number of human WNND cases recorded. To evaluate the efficacy of the system at alerting upon WNV enzootic circulation before the onset of human cases, we tested 270 pigeons in 2011 and 240 pigeons in 2012. In Central Macedonia, the first seroconversions in pigeons were recorded 44 and 47 days, respectively, before the first human WNND cases. Pigeon surveillance was used successfully for identification of areas with WNV enzootic transmission and for early warning. Timely diffusion of information to health authorities facilitated the implementation of preparedness plans to protect public health.

Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979–2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010–2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV.

IntroductionDuring summer 2010, 262 human cases including 35 deaths from West Nile virus (WNV) infection were reported from Central Macedonia, Greece. Evidence from mosquitoes, birds and blood donors demonstrated that the epidemic was caused by WNV lineage 2, which until recently was considered of low virulence. We conducted a household seroprevalence study to estimate the spread of infection in the population during the epidemic, ascertain the relationship of infection to clinical disease, and identify risk factors for infection.MethodsWe used a two-stage cluster design to select a random sample of residents aged ≥18 years in the outbreak epicentre. We collected demographic, medical, and risk factor data using standard questionnaires and environmental checklists, and tested serum samples for presence of WNV IgG and IgM antibodies using ELISA.ResultsOverall, 723 individuals participated in the study, and 644 blood samples were available. Weighted seropositivity for IgG antibodies was 5.8% (95% CI: 3.8–8.6; n=41). We estimated that about 1 in 130 (1:141 to 1:124) infected individuals developed WNV neuroinvasive disease, and approximately 18% had clinical manifestations attributable to their infection. Risk factors for infection reflected high exposure to mosquitoes; rural residents were particularly at risk (prevalence ratio: 8.2, 95% CI: 1.1–58.7).DiscussionThis study adds to the evidence that WNV lineage 2 strains can cause significant illness, demonstrating ratios of infection to clinical disease similar to those found previously for WNV lineage 1.

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