Longer lives and fertility far below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman are leading to rapid population aging in many countries. Many observers are concerned that aging will adversely affect public finances and standards of living. Analysis of newly available National Transfer Accounts data for 40 countries shows that fertility well above replacement would typically be most beneficial for government budgets. However, fertility near replacement would be most beneficial for standards of living when the analysis includes the effects of age structure on families as well as governments. And fertility below replacement would maximize per capita consumption when the cost of providing capital for a growing labor force is taken into account. While low fertility will indeed challenge government programs and very low fertility undermines living standards, we find that moderately low fertility and population decline favor the broader material standard of living
IntroductionThe shape of the demographic life cycle is of fundamental interest, which demographers recognize through extensive efforts to estimate, describe and interpret the age-shapes of fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, and migration. These age-shapes are influenced by biology, culture, economic constraints and individual choice. Similarly, the shape of the economic life cycle is of fundamental interest in its own right, and this shape is influenced by the same set of factors. Here we will be primarily concerned with the estimation and description of the basic economic life cycle, and some illustrative comparisons of how it differs across countries and over time within countries in recent years.Economic behavior over the life cycle can be summarized by the amount consumed at each age and by the amount produced through labor at each age. One sort of economic dependency occurs when consumption exceeds labor earnings, a condition that marks off periods in childhood and old age. From this point of view, an older person is economically dependent even if she has accumulated claims on output that more than offset her consumption, claims that could take the form of entitlements to transfers or ownership of assets. Often the economic lifecycle is treated in a highly stylized fashion. Dependency ratios and other similar age structure variables, for example, capture only the broadest features of the economic lifecycle, and quadratic functions smooth through important details of the age patterns. Our goal here is to measure it in comprehensive detail. However, we Sources: Figures and Tables France (1996) : Author Manuscript Author ManuscriptAuthor Manuscript Author Manuscripthave not attempted to take time use into account, so such important issues as the time spent by parents caring for their children, or time spent caring for elderly relatives, are not covered here.Individual consumption or production by age are seldom calculated, because attention naturally turns toward more disaggregated measures such as wages, labor force participation rates, hours worked, or household expenditures. However, although per capita consumption and production may seem like crude measures, they summarize and incorporate the influences of many factors that may have contradictory or complementary effects on the economic life cycle.Demographic age profiles for fertility and mortality are of interest because they describe a basic aspect of human behavior. But they are also important because they can be applied to a population age distribution to calculate the number of births and deaths occurring in a period. Such a calculation requires the assumption, seldom made explicit, that variations in the population age distribution and in the age profiles of fertility and mortality, are independent. The Easterlin Hypothesis asserts the contrary: that an unusually large age group will experience unusually low fertility. Similarly, an unusually large share of young children in the population might, in some contexts, be expected to cause mortali...
This study focuses on the estimation of demand for immunization as well as its technological effect on the survival probability of a child in rural India. Careful attention is paid to the consequences of parental selection on survival technology and demand for health inputs. The results suggest that child mortality is negatively related to the likelihood of purchasing vaccination, but imperfect vaccination substantially reduce the beneficial effect. Results also suggest that a mother who perceives her child faces a risk of higher likelihood of death compensates for their beliefs in a beneficial way. Consequently, estimations that ignore this selection underestimate the impact of immunization on child survival. Mothers also engage in complementary behavior by reinforcing investment when they choose among health inputs. Estimations that ignore the complementarity substantially overstate the impact of prenatal care and delivery care on demand for immunization. The evidence for complementarity among measured inputs also implies that there might be favorable selection between measured and unmeasured inputs, although the adverse selection seems dominant in this study. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2005immunization, self-selection, household production, health inputs,
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank. Terms of use: Documents inThe ADB Economics Working Paper Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia's development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB's country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness.
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