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One of the Mediterranean hotspots for extreme precipitation is the coastal mountainous eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps regions, which are often affected by heavy precipitation events (HPEs) that can cause severe damage. Representing these events at different time scales and projecting their future evolution using regional climate models (RCMs) remains a key modelling challenge. This study evaluates the impact of model configuration on the representation of extreme daily precipitation in an RCM at climatological and event scales (HPEs). Additionally, the impact of the spectral nudging (SN) technique

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<p>The topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps is one of the rainiest areas in the Mediterranean and particularly vulnerable to climate change. The aim is to estimate the future climate change of precipitation over this region over which research on this subject is still limited. We use the climate projections from the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble at 0.11° resolution. The ensemble is comprised of 14 regional climate models (RCMs) driven by eight CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), a total of 68 members. The climate change signal is examined for the far future period (2071-2100) with respect to the historical period (1971-2000) for one greenhouse gases concentration scenario, particularly for RCP8.5. Total precipitation shows a considerable reduction in summer months, while in winter it is projected to increase in the northern part of the region and to decrease in southern parts, displaying the known south-north gradients. Accordingly, the number of rainy days is projected to decrease by the end of the century, especially during summer over the entire region and in winter over the southern parts. However, the precipitation intensity increase can be expected by the end of the century, especially during the winter months, while in the summer there is no clear consensus between different models. Also, an increase in extreme precipitation is projected during the winter months, while during summer months a similar south-north gradient is shown as for total precipitation. A more detailed analysis for multiple future periods and greenhouse gases concentration scenarios, with an emphasis on extreme precipitation, is planned.</p>

<p><span>The study aims to estimate the future climate change of extreme precipitation over the topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change. A number of studies classify this region as an area with a "zero-change" line between the wetter north and drier south, which shifts northward towards the end of the century. However, the research on future extreme precipitation changes over this region is still limited. We use an unprecedented ensemble of ~140 regional climate model (RCM) simulations of future climate from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble at 0.11° resolution, to cover as many future conditions and sources of uncertainty as possible. The ensemble is comprised of 15 RCMs driven by 11 CMIP5 global climate models. The climate change signal is estimated for three different greenhouse gases concentration scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and several future periods (2041-2070, 2071-2100) with respect to the historical period (1971-2000). We focused on heavy precipitation measures: the 99th percentile of all-day precipitation, number of heavy and very heavy precipitation days, maximum one-day and five-day aggregated precipitation sum. Additionally, we have applied the extreme value analysis, specifically the generalized extreme value theory, to assess extreme precipitation return levels associated with return periods between 10 and 100 years. The results are</span><span> highly</span><span> dependent on period, scenario, season and location. Overall, </span><span> results</span><span> show an intensification of both heavy and extreme precipitation events, especially during cold seasons over the north-eastern areas for the far future period. For this projected change, models show high agreement as opposed to that in summer, when most of the examined indices display the aforementioned south-north gradient. A more detailed analysis is planned to quantify the climate change signal for several subdomains of interest.</span></p>