Incarcerated populations are at high-risk to develop tuberculosis (TB), however their impact on the population-level tuberculosis epidemic has been scarcely studied. We aimed to describe the burden and trends of TB among incarcerated populations over time in Paraguay, its clinical and epidemiological differences and the population attributable fraction. This is an observational, descriptive study including all TB cases notified to the National TB control Program in Paraguay during the period 2009–2018. We also used case registries of prisoners diagnosed with tuberculosis from the Minister of Justice. The population attributable fraction of TB in the community due to incarcerated cases was estimated through Levin’s formula. The characteristics of TB cases in and outside of prison were compared as well as the characteristics of TB in prisons were modified over time. During 2009–2018, 2764 (9.7%) of the 28,534 TB reported cases in Paraguay occurred in prisons. The number of prisoners in Paraguay increased from 6258 in 2009 to 14,627 in 2018 (incarceration rate, 101 to 207 per 100,000 persons) while the number of TB cases among prisoners increased by 250% (n = 192 in 2009 versus n = 480 in 2018). The annual TB notification rate among male prisoners was 3218 and 3459 per 100,000 inmates in 2009 and 2018, respectively. The percentage of all TB cases occurring among prisoners increased from 7.1% in 2009 to 14.5% in 2018. The relative risk of TB in prisons compared to community was 70.3 (95% CI, 67.7–73.1); the overall population attributable risk was 9.5%. Among the 16 penitentiary centers in the country, two of them—Tacumbú (39.0%) and Ciudad del Este (23.3%)—represent two thirds of all TB cases in prisons. TB among inmates is predominantly concentrated in those 20–34 years old (77.3% of all), twice the percentage of cases for the same age group outside of prison. Our findings show that the TB epidemic in prisons represents one of the most important challenges for TB control in Paraguay, especially in the country’s largest cities. Appropriate TB control measures among incarcerated populations are needed and may have substantial impact on the overall TB burden in the country.

Recent rises in incident tuberculosis (TB) cases in Paraguay and the increasing concentration of TB within prisons highlight the urgency of targeting strategies to interrupt transmission and prevent new infections. However, whether specific cities or carceral institutions play a disproportionate role in transmission remains unknown. We conducted prospective genomic surveillance, sequencing 471 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex genomes, from inside and outside prisons in Paraguay’s two largest urban areas, Asunción and Ciudad del Este, from 2016 to 2021. We found genomic evidence of frequent recent transmission within prisons and transmission linkages spanning prisons and surrounding populations. We identified a signal of frequent M. tuberculosis spread between urban areas and marked recent population size expansion of the three largest genomic transmission clusters. Together, our findings highlight the urgency of strengthening TB control programs to reduce transmission risk within prisons in Paraguay, where incidence was 70 times that outside prisons in 2021.

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BACKGROUND The prevalence of respiratory symptoms and confirmed tuberculosis (TB) among indigenous groups in Paraguay is unknown.METHODS This study assessed the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, confirmed pulmonary TB, and associated socio-economic factors among indigenous Paraguayan populations. Indigenous persons residing in selected communities were included in the study. A total of 24,352 participants were interviewed at home between October and December 2012. Respiratory symptomatic individuals were defined as those with respiratory symptoms of TB. A hierarchical Poisson regression analysis was performed with four levels: individual characteristics, living conditions and environmental characteristics, source of food, and type of nutrition.FINDINGS In this study, 1,383 participants had respiratory symptoms (5.7%), but only 10 had culture-confirmed TB (41/100,000 inhabitants). The small number of cases did not allow evaluation of the risk factors for TB. Age older than 37 years was associated with a two-fold increased risk of symptoms. Female sex; family history of TB; type of housing; home heating; a lack of hunting, fishing, or purchasing food; and a lack of vegetable consumption were also associated with the presence of symptoms. A lack of cereal consumption had a protective effect. Members of the Ayoreo or Manjui ethnic groups had a three-fold increased risk of symptoms.MAIN CONCLUSION Individual characteristics, dietary habits, and belonging to specific ethnic groups were associated with respiratory symptoms.

RESUMENObjetivo.Describir las características sociodemográficas y clínico-epidemiológicas y determinar los factores asociados a la mortalidad de personas con diagnóstico de tuberculosis en Paraguay.Métodos.Investigación operativa con un diseño de cohortes retrospectivo de los casos diagnosticados con TB en Paraguay entre 2015-2016. Se utilizó la base datos del Programa Nacional de Control de Tuberculosis. Para determinar los factores asociados con mortalidad se utilizaron pruebas chi cuadrado y riesgo relativo (RR) con un intervalo de confianza de 95% (IC95%); además, se ajustó un modelo de regresión múltiple de Poisson robusto. Se utilizó un nivel de significación de 5%.Resultados.Se estudiaron 5 141 casos de TB, de los cuales 11,5% fallecieron, los factores que aumentan el riesgo de muerte fueron: sexo masculino (RR: 1,26 IC; 95%: 1,1-1,50), infección con virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) (RR: 4,78; IC 95%: 4,04-5,65) y enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (RR: 1,70; IC 95%: 1,19-2,42). Como factor protector se identificó ser persona privada de la libertad (RR: 0,37 IC 95%: 0,24-0,61).Conclusiones.El mayor riesgo de muerte lo presentan los hombres y las personas con coinfección TB/VIH y el menor riesgo, las personas privadas de la libertad. Es necesario mejorar el diagnóstico y seguimiento a los casos de TB, con la efectiva implementación del tratamiento directamente observado (TDO) así como el manejo oportuno de enfermedades asociadas como VIH y enfermedad pulmonar obstructica crónica (EPOC).