This paper presents a conceptual picture of balanced tropical tropospheric dynamics inspired by recent observations. The most important factor differentiating the tropics from middle and higher latitudes is the absence of baroclinic instability; upward motion occurs primarily via deep convective processes. Thus, convection forms an integral part of large-scale tropical motions. Since convection itself is small-scale and chaotic in detail, predictability lies in uncovering the hidden hands that guide the average behavior of convection. Two appear, balanced dynamics and thermodynamic constraints. Contrary to conventional expectations, balanced dynamics plays a crucial role in the tropical atmosphere. However, due to the smallness of the Coriolis parameter there, nonlinear balance is more important in the tropics than at higher latitudes. Three thermodynamic constraints appear to play an important role in governing the average behavior of convection outside of the cores of tropical storms. First, convection is subject to control via a lower tropospheric buoyancy quasi-equilibrium process, wherein destabilization of the lower troposphere by nonconvective processes is balanced by convective stabilization. Second, the production of precipitation is extraordinarily sensitive to the saturation fraction of the troposphere. Third, ''moisture quasi-equilibrium'' governs the saturation fraction, with moister atmospheres being associated with smaller moist convective instability. The moist convective instability is governed by the balanced thermodynamic response to the pattern of potential vorticity, which in turn is slowly modified by convective and radiative heating. The intricate dance between these dynamic and thermodynamic processes leads to complex behavior of the tropical atmosphere in ways that we are just beginning to understand.

Observational data of tropical disturbances are analyzed in order to investigate tropical cyclogenesis. Data from 31 cases observed during two field campaigns are used to investigate possible correlations between various dynamic and thermodynamic variables. The results show that a strong mid-level vortex is necessary to promote spin up of the low-level vortex in a tropical cyclone. This paper presents a theory on the mechanism of this process; the mid-level vortex creates a thermodynamic environment conducive to convection with a more bottom-heavy mass flux profile that exhibits a strong positive vertical gradient in a shallow layer near the surface. Mass continuity then implies that the strongest horizontal mass and vorticity convergence occur near the surface. This results in low-level vortex intensification.

For two of the disturbances that were observed during several consecutive days, evolution of the dynamics and thermodynamics is documented. One of these disturbances, Karl, was observed in the period before it intensified into a tropical storm; the other one, Gaston, was observed after it unexpectedly decayed from a tropical storm to a tropical disturbance. A hypothesis on its decay is presented

Abstract. Observational data of tropical disturbances are analyzed in order to investigate tropical cyclogenesis. Data from 37 cases observed during three field campaigns are used to investigate possible correlations between various dynamic and thermodynamic variables. The results show that a strong mid-level vortex is necessary to promote spin up of the lowlevel vortex in a tropical cyclone. This paper presents a theory on the mechanism of this process. The mid-level vortex creates a thermodynamic environment conducive to convection with a more bottom-heavy mass flux profile that exhibits a strong positive vertical gradient in a shallow layer near the surface. Mass continuity then implies that the strongest horizontal mass and vorticity convergence occurs near the surface. This results in low-level vortex intensification.For two of the disturbances that were observed during several consecutive days, evolution of the dynamics and thermodynamics is documented. One of these disturbances, Karl, was observed in the period before it intensified into a tropical storm; the other one, Gaston, was observed after it unexpectedly decayed from a tropical storm to a tropical disturbance. A hypothesis on its decay is presented.

The analytical model of convectively coupled gravity waves and moisture modes of Raymond and Fuchs is extended to the case of top-heavy and bottom-heavy convective heating profiles. Top-heavy heating profiles favor gravity waves, while bottom-heavy profiles support moisture modes. The latter behavior results from the sensitivity of moisture modes to the gross moist stability, which is more negative with bottom-heavy heating.A numerical implementation of the analytical model allows calculations in the two-dimensional nonrotating case as well as on a three-dimensional equatorial beta plane. In the two-dimensional case the analytical and numerical models are mostly in agreement, although minor discrepancies occur. In three dimensions the gravity modes become equatorial Kelvin waves whereas the moisture modes are more complex and require further investigation.

Early career scientists played crucial roles in the success of the PREDICT field campaign and, in turn, experienced unique career-development opportunities that will shape their research for years to come.