The Late Formative period immediately precedes the emergence of Tiwanaku, one of the earliest South American states, yet it is one of the most poorly understood periods in the southern Lake Titicaca Basin (Bolivia). In this article, we refine the ceramic chronology of this period with large sets of dates from eight sites, focusing on temporal inflection points in decorated ceramic styles. These points, estimated here by Bayesian models, index specific moments of change: (1) cal AD 120 (60–170, 95% probability): the first deposition of Kalasasaya red-rimmed and zonally incised styles; (2) cal AD 240 (190–340, 95% probability): a tentative estimate of the final deposition of Kalasasaya zonally incised vessels; (3) cal AD 420 (380–470, 95% probability): the final deposition of Kalasasaya red-rimmed vessels; and (4) cal AD 590 (500–660, 95% probability): the first deposition of Tiwanaku Redwares. These four modeled boundaries anchor an updated Late Formative chronology, which includes the Initial Late Formative phase, a newly identified decorative hiatus between the Middle and Late Formative periods. The models place Qeya and transitional vessels between inflection points 3 and 4 based on regionally consistent stratigraphic sequences. This more precise chronology will enable researchers to explore the trajectories of other contemporary shifts during this crucial period in Lake Titicaca Basin's prehistory.

Ongoing debate about the expansion of the Tiwanaku state has centred on the extent to which it exercised direct political control over a continuous territory. Positions in this debate range from those that posit a unified Tiwanaku heartland comprising much of the Lake Titicaca Basin to those that conceptualize Tiwanaku influence as more circumscribed, and perhaps limited to the city itself. We engage this debate by assessing evidence for Tiwanaku expansion into the upper Desaguadero Valley, a region often argued to have been within the core area of Tiwanaku control. We present new evidence from four sites: Khonkho Wankane, Iruhito, Cerro Chijcha and Nazacara. These data suggest that Tiwanaku political influence was selective and focused on developing relationships with riverine communities in order to gain access to caravan circuits. Rather than a core area of continuous control, these processes created a shifting political mosaic rooted in fluid politico-religious webs.

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