The activity of cortical neurons in sensory areas covaries with perceptual decisions, a relationship that is often quantified by choice probabilities. Although choice probabilities have been measured extensively, their interpretation has remained fraught with difficulty. We derive the mathematical relationship between choice probabilities, read-out weights and correlated variability in the standard neural decision-making model. Our solution allowed us to prove and generalize earlier observations on the basis of numerical simulations and to derive new predictions. Notably, our results indicate how the read-out weight profile, or decoding strategy, can be inferred from experimentally measurable quantities. Furthermore, we developed a test to decide whether the decoding weights of individual neurons are optimal for the task, even without knowing the underlying correlations. We confirmed the practicality of our approach using simulated data from a realistic population model. Thus, our findings provide a theoretical foundation for a growing body of experimental results on choice probabilities and correlations.

Abstract. We present a framework for efficient, accurate approximate Bayesian inference in generalized linear models (GLMs), based on the expectation propagation (EP) technique. The parameters can be endowed with a factorizing prior distribution, encoding properties such as sparsity or non-negativity. The central role of posterior log-concavity in Bayesian GLMs is emphasized and related to stability issues in EP. In particular, we use our technique to infer the parameters of a point process model for neuronal spiking data from multiple electrodes, demonstrating significantly superior predictive performance when a sparsity assumption is enforced via a Laplace prior distribution.

Reconstructing stimuli from the spike trains of neurons is an important approach for understanding the neural code. One of the difficulties associated with this task is that signals which are varying continuously in time are encoded into sequences of discrete events or spikes. An important problem is to determine how much information about the continuously varying stimulus can be extracted from the time-points at which spikes were observed, especially if these time-points are subject to some sort of randomness. For the special case of spike trains generated by leaky integrate and fire neurons, noise can be introduced by allowing variations in the threshold every time a spike is released. A simple decoding algorithm previously derived for the noiseless case can be extended to the stochastic case, but turns out to be biased. Here, we review a solution to this problem, by presenting a simple yet efficient algorithm which greatly reduces the bias, and therefore leads to better decoding performance in the stochastic case.