In recent decades, dengue has been expanding rapidly in the tropical cities. Even though environmental factors and landscape features profoundly impact dengue vector abundance and disease epidemiology, significant gaps exist in understanding the role of local environmental heterogeneity on dengue epidemiology in India. In this study, we assessed the role of remotely sensed climatic factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) and landscape variables (land use pattern, vegetation and built up density) on dengue incidence (2012–2019) in Bhopal city, Central India. Dengue hotspots in the city were assessed through geographical information system based spatial statistics. Dengue incidence increased from 0.59 cases in 2012 to 9.11 cases in 2019 per 10,000 inhabitants, and wards located in Southern Bhopal were found to be dengue hotspots. Distributed lag non-linear model combined with quasi Poisson regression was used to assess the exposure-response association, relative risk (RR), and delayed effects of environmental factors on dengue incidence. The analysis revealed a non-linear relationship between meteorological variables and dengue cases. The model shows that the risk of dengue cases increases with increasing mean temperature, rainfall and absolute humidity. The highest RR of dengue cases (~2.0) was observed for absolute humidity ≥60 g/m3 with a 5–15 week lag. Rapid urbanization assessed by an increase in the built-up area (a 9.1% increase in 2020 compared to 2014) could also be a key factor driving dengue incidence in Bhopal city. The study sheds important insight into the synergistic effects of both the landscape and climatic factors on the transmission dynamics of dengue. Furthermore, the study provides key baseline information on the climatic variables that can be used in the micro-level dengue prediction models in Bhopal and other cities with similar climatic conditions.
Tamil Nadu (TN)'s South-Eastern coastal plain comprises of 5235 villages/wards, is densely populated ($2000/km 2 ), and is highly vulnerable to multi-hazard events. Earlier vulnerability case studies carried out in TN utilized district as a unit of analysis, considering mostly the physical parameters. For the first time, the socio-economic vulnerability at the level of micro administrative units was analyzed for the entire stretch of the coastal plains of TN using ten census and household data-based indicators. All the indicators were used to determine the degree of vulnerability and summed up to determine the hot spots of socio-economic vulnerability. Public perception surveys carried out with 406 respondents from 363 villages were used to derive the likelihood-impact risk matrix. Results show that $60% of the villages between the coastal stretch of Nagapattinam and Puducherry, including major parts of Cuddalore district are highly vulnerable (hot spots) to multi-hazard risks. The information retrieved at micro administrative units can be used by policymakers and coastal managers to develop effective plans for improving the resilience and preparedness of the community.
The coastal plains of Tamil Nadu, India, are prone to floods, the most common disaster experienced in this region almost every year. This research aims to identify flood risks in the coastal plain region of Tamil Nadu, delineated through a watershed approach with 5020 micro-administrative units covering an area of about 26,000 sq. km. A comprehensive flood risk assessment covering hazard, vulnerability, and exposure parameters was carried out using multiple datasets derived from field surveys, satellite data, and secondary data sources. The flood hazard layer was prepared on a probability scale (0–1) with the help of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar data coupled with GIS-based water rise modelling using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model (SRTM-DEM) and reports of the District Disaster Management Plans of 13 coastal districts. In addition, the National Resources Conservation Service-Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method was adopted to estimate surface runoff potential for identifying low probability flood-prone regions. The vulnerability and exposure of the population to flood hazards were determined using census and household data-based indicators. The different categories of built-up areas were delineated and intersected with the flood hazard layer to estimate elements at flood risk. An exhaustive field survey was conducted at 514 locations of the study area, targeting deprived communities of all major settlements to validate the flood hazard layer and understand the public perceptions. The amalgamation of results shows that very high flood risk prevails in the northern parts of coastal Tamil Nadu, especially the stretch between Chennai and Cuddalore. In addition, to provide baseline datasets for the first time at micro-administrative units for the entire coastal plains of Tamil Nadu, the study offers a pragmatic methodology for determining location-specific flood risks for policy interventions.
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