Market discipline, bank risk, emerging markets, Russian Federation, G20, G21,

In this study, the short-term fluctuations in the monthly returns on composite indexes of 17 emerging markets affected by the financial crises in the late 1990s and 2000 are decomposed with vector autoregressive estimates. The results are compared to the behaviour of variation in returns in developed markets. Three different models are estimated for each market. Due to first order autocorrelations, lagged returns contribute significantly to return volatility in emerging markets. Decomposition of variances indicates that dividend yield and interest rate are determining factors of volatility, but at varying degrees in different emerging markets. However, the role of dividend yield is not as strong as it is in the developed markets as efficient markets hypothesis would imply. In some cases, exchange rates significantly influence market volatility. Fluctuations in the world portfolio return have a small effect on return volatility in national markets. However, there are significant differences across all emerging markets that point to differences in market structures and particular conditions in each country. Significant contributions of interest rates, exchange rates and inflation imply the role of monetary and fiscal policy as precedents of financial crises.

In this paper we estimate creditworthiness of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that receive financial and non-financial incentives from the small business development administration (KOSGEB) in Turkey. Assessing creditworthiness of SMEs to qualify for government support remains a concern since standard methods based on financial information on firms would be inadequate due to lack of transparent financial information. Such businesses apply for government support because they would not qualify for funding from financial institutions. To assess the creditworthiness of these businesses other firm-level data is essential. A logit model is used to estimate riskiness of SMEs including non-financial data obtained from the business survey obtained by KOSGEB. We find that efficient and internationally competitive SMEs are unlikely to default. Firms with high creditworthiness are also managed by owners and focus on their core businesses. The model used in this paper provides a tool that can be used to better screen applicants seeking incentives as well as monitoring firms under a government support program.

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