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This study examines spatio-temporal characteristics of the summer monsoon rainy season over East Asia using six regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the “Coordinated Regional Domain Experiment” (CORDEX) East Asia Phase II project. The combination of multiple global climate models (GCMs) × RCMs framework produces a larger spread in summer monsoon characteristics than those from driving GCMs only, enabling a better quantification of uncertainty factors. The RCM simulations on average reproduce the observed summer monsoon duration and area better than the corresponding boundary GCMs, implying the added values of downscaling. Both area and duration of the East Asian summer monsoon are projected to increase by the late 21st century, more strongly in the high emission scenarios than in the low emission ones, particularly in China. Different responses between scenarios, which indicate warming mitigation benefits become significant only in the late 21st century due to large inter-simulation uncertainties. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) results show that uncertainty in future monsoon area and duration is larger between boundary GCMs than between RCMs over East Asia and its coastal sub-regions. A strong inter-simulation relationship between RCMs and GCMs supports that the boundary GCMs substantially diversify downscaled RCM projections through different climate sensitivities. Further, the distinct sub-regional responses in future monsoon area and duration emphasize the importance of fine-resolution projections with appropriate uncertainty measures for better preparing region-specific adaptation plans.

Heavily industrialized East Asia, with its high greenhouse gas emissions, must inevitably increase renewable energy production to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. Photovoltaics (PV), a widely utilized renewable energy source, is directly affected by the weather and climate. This study conducted the first analysis of current and future PV potential (PVpot) changes over East Asia using the ERA5 reanalysis and multiple high-resolution regional climate model simulations. The recent PVpot over East Asia did not exhibit any notable changes, but the future PVpot of the multi-model ensemble is predicted to decrease by À4.3% (winter) to À1.5% (summer) on average with excellent inter-model agreements. Results demonstrated that the widespread increase in near-surface air temperature causes the overall PVpot decrease (around À2.0%) over East Asia across all seasons. Interestingly, surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases in summer, offsetting temperature-induced PVpot decreases (by about 0.7%) while it declines in winter and spring, intensifying the warming-driven PVpot decrease (by approximately À1.4% to À2.3%). Further, the changes in the number of rainy days are associated with the changing patterns of surface down-welling shortwave radiation, indicating the importance of reliable projections of precipitation. Wind speed exerts a negligible effect on the future PVpot change.

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