The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its potential application in animal health.

An opportunistic bacterial infection preceded by weather of unusually high humidity and temperature caused mass death of saigas.

No abstract

In January 2006, a major cold spell affected Europe, coinciding with an increase of H5N1 influenza virus detected in wild birds, mostly dead mute swans, starting along the River Danube and the Mediterranean coast line. Subsequently H5N1 detections in wild birds were concentrated in central and western parts of Europe, reaching a peak in mid February. We tested the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of these H5N1 infections was modulated by the long-term wintering line, the 0°C isotherm marking the limit beyond which areas are largely unsuitable for wintering waterfowl. Given the particularly cold [2005][2006] European winter, we also considered the satellite-derived contemporary frost conditions. This brought us to select the long-term maximum rather than the mean January 0°C isotherm as the best approximation for the [2005][2006] wintering line. Our analysis shows that H5N1 detection sites were closer to the wintering line than would be expected by chance, even when the geographic distribution of water bird wintering sites was accounted for. We argue that partial frost conditions in water bodies are conducive to bird congregation, and this may have enhanced H5N1 transmission and local spread. Because the environmental virus load also would build up in these hot spots, H5N1 virus may have readily persisted during the spring, at least in cooler areas. We conclude that H5N1 introduction, spread, and persistence in Europe may have been enhanced by the cold 2005-2006 winter.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), due to infection with serotype O virus, occurred in wild boar and within eleven outbreaks in domestic livestock in the south-east of Bulgaria, Thrace region, in 2011. Hence, the issue of the potential for the spread and maintenance of FMD virus (FMDV) infection in a population of wild ungulates became important. This assessment focused on the spread and maintenance of FMDV infection within a hypothetical wild boar and deer population in an environment, which is characterized by a climate transitional between Mediterranean and continental and variable wildlife population densities. The assessment was based on three aspects: (i) a systematic review of the literature focusing on experimental infection studies to identify the parameters describing the duration of FMDV infection in deer and wild boar, as well as observational studies assessing the occurrence of FMDV infection in wild deer and wild boar populations, (ii) prevalence survey data of wild boar and deer in Bulgaria and Turkey and (iii) an epidemiological model, simulating the host-to-host spread of FMDV infections. It is concluded, based on all three aspects, that the wildlife population in Thrace, and so wildlife populations in similar ecological settings, are probably not able to maintain FMD in the long term in the absence of FMDV infection in the domestic host population. However, limited spread of FMDV infection in time and space in the wildlife populations can occur. If there is a continued cross-over of FMDV between domestic and wildlife populations or a higher population density, virus circulation may be prolonged.