Abstract. Impact database development and application for risk analysis and management promote the usage of self-learning computer systems with elements of artificial intelligence. Such system learning could be successful when the databases store the complete information about each event, parameters of the simulation models, the range of its application, and residual errors. Each new description included in the database could increase the reliability of the results obtained with application of simulation models. The calibration of mathematical models is the first step to self-learning of automated systems. The article describes the events' database structure and examples of calibrated computer models as applied to the impact of expected emergencies and risk indicator assessment. Examples of database statistics usage in order to rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the frequency of emergencies of different character as well as risk indicators are given.

Abstract. Impact databases development and application for risk analysis and management promotes the usage of self-learning computer systems with elements of artificial intelligence. Such systems learning could be successful when the databases store the complete information about each event, parameters of the simulation models, the range of its application and residual errors. Each new description included in the database could increase the reliability of the results obtained with application of simulation models. The calibration of mathematical models is the first step to self-learning of automated systems. The article describes the events' database structure, and examples of calibrated computer models as applied to the impact of expected emergencies and risk indicators assessment. Examples of database statistics usage in order to rank the subjects of the Russian Federation by the frequency of emergencies of different character, as well as risk indicators are given.

For all earthquake prone countries, including the Russian Federation, seismic risk assessment is periodically updated. The need for updating is increasing due to changes in assessments of hazard level and vulnerability properties of the elements at risk. For the earthquake prone regions of the Russian Federation classified as the priority development zones, risk indicators updating should increase the effectiveness of preventive measures implementation aimed at risk reduction. Calculations show that the development of risk maps, as well as the subsequent planning and implementation of preventive measures tied to the place marked on the map as the most dangerous, can reduce possible social and economic losses by 20-30%. The article describes the issues of updating seismic risk indicators for the territory of the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Buryatia. For the considered areas, which are included in the advanced development program, the actual values of seismic hazard and building vulnerability were used. The procedure for assessing and mapping risk indicators with the geographic information system “Extremum” application is given. Examples of thematic maps are presented, illustrating rather high estimates of individual risk for 6% of the territory of the Irkutsk region and 39% of the territory of the Republic of Buryatia. The results of the study indicate the need and importance of ensuring the seismic safety of the population in the framework of planning measures for the advanced development of territories.

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