SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.MethodsWe estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.FindingsGlobally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 mil...

SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.MethodsWe used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.FindingsIn 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). I...

SUMMARY. The disease burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is expected to increase as the infected population ages. A modelling approach was used to estimate the total number of viremic infections, diagnosed, treated and new infections in 2013. In addition, the model was used to estimate the change in the total number of HCV infections, the disease progression and mortality in 2013-2030. Finally, expert panel consensus was used to capture current treatment practices in each country. Using today's treatment paradigm, the total number of HCV infections is projected to decline or remain flat in all countries studied. However, in the same time period, the number of individuals with late-stage liver disease is projected to increase. This study concluded that the current treatment rate and efficacy are not sufficient to manage the disease burden of HCV. Thus, alternative strategies are required to keep the number of HCV individuals with advanced liver disease and liver-related deaths from increasing.

BackgroundSince lifestyle changes are main therapies for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), changing dietary components (nutritional or bioactive) may play a parallel important role. Few studies have assessed the effects of curcumin on NAFLD (mainly antioxidant and anti-inflammatory effects). We aimed to determine the effects of nano-curcumin (NC) on overweight/obese NAFLD patients by assessing glucose, lipids, inflammation, insulin resistance, and liver function indices, especially through nesfatin.MethodsThis double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted in the Oil Company Central Hospital, Tehran. 84 overweight/obese patients with NAFLD diagnosed using ultrasonography were recruited according to the eligibility criteria (age 25–50 yrs., body mass index [BMI] 25–35 kg/m2). The patients were randomly divided into two equal NC (n = 42) and placebo (n = 42) groups. Interventions were two 40 mg capsules/day after meals for 3 months. Lifestyle changes were advised. A general questionnaire, a 24-h food recall (at the beginning, middle and end), and the short-form international physical activity questionnaire (at the beginning and end) were completed. Also, blood pressure, fatty liver degree, anthropometrics, fasting blood sugar (FBS) and insulin (FBI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), high sensitive c-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), liver transaminases, and nesfatin were determined at the beginning and end.ResultsNC compared with placebo significantly increased HDL, QUICKI, and nesfatin and decreased fatty liver degree, liver transaminases, waist circumference (WC), FBS, FBI, HbA1c, TG, TC, LDL, HOMA-IR, TNF-α, hs-CRP, and IL-6 (P < 0.05). The mean changes in weight, BMI, body composition (BC), and blood pressure were not significant (P > 0.05). After adjustment for confounders, the changes were similar to the unadjusted model.ConclusionNC supplementation in overweight/obese NAFLD patients improved glucose indices, lipids, inflammation, WC, nesfatin, liver transaminases, and fatty liver degree. Accordingly, the proposed mechanism for ameliorating NAFLD with NC was approved by the increased serum nesfatin and likely consequent improvements in inflammation, lipids, and glucose profile. Further trials of nano-curcumin’s effects are suggested.Trial registrationIranian Registry of Clinical Trials, IRCT2016071915536N3. Registered 2016-08-02.

Background:Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has different prevalence rates in various parts of the world and is a risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease that could progress to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, cirrhosis, and liver failure.Objectives:The current study aimed to investigate the effect of Aerobic Training (AT) and resistance training (RT) on hepatic fat content and liver enzyme levels in Iranian men.Patients and Methods:In a randomized clinical trial study, 30 men with clinically defined NAFLD were allocated into three groups (aerobic, resistance and control). An aerobic group program consisted of 45 minutes of aerobic exercise at 60% - 75% maximum heart rate intensity, a resistance group performed seven resistance exercises at intensity of 50% - 70% of 1 repetition maximum (1RM ) and the control group had no exercise training program during the study. Before and after training, anthropometry, insulin sensitivity, liver enzymes and hepatic fat were elevated.Results:After training, hepatic fat content was markedly reduced, to a similar extent, in both the aerobic and resistance exercise training groups (P ≤ 0.05). In the two exercise training groups, alanine amino transferase and aspartate amino transferase serum levels were significantly decreased compared to the control group (P = 0.002) and (P = 0.02), respectively. Moreover, body fat (%), fat mass (kg), homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMI-IR) were all improved in the AT and RT. These changes in the AT group were independent of weight loss.Conclusions:This study demonstrated that RT and AT are equally effective in reducing hepatic fat content and liver enzyme levels among patients with NAFLD. However, aerobic exercise specifically improves NAFLD independent of any change in body weight.