Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. MethodsWe forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FindingsWe estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57•4 (95% uncertainty interval 50•4-65•1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152•8 (130•8-175•9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0•1% [-7•5 to 10•8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1•69 [1•64-1•73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1•67 [1•52-1•85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected incr...

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3•5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

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Background:Estimates of psychiatric morbidity in the community will help service development. Participation of trained nonspecialist health-care providers will facilitate scaling up of services in resource-limited settings.Aims:This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of priority mental health problems in populations served by the District Mental Health Program (DMHP).Settings and Design:This is a population-based cross-sectional survey.Materials and Methods:We did stratified cluster sampling of households in five districts of Kerala. Trained Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) identified people who had symptoms suggestive of schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. Clinicians evaluated the information collected by the ASHAs and designated individuals as probable cases of psychosis or noncases. Screening instruments such as General Health Questionnaire-12, CAGE questionnaire, and Everyday Abilities Scale for India were used for identifying common mental disorders (CMDs), clinically significant alcohol-related problems, and functional impairment.Results:We found 12.43% of the adult population affected by mental health conditions. We found CMD as most common with a prevalence of 9%. The prevalence of psychosis was 0.71%, clinically significant alcohol-related problems was 1.46%, and dementia and other cognitive impairments was 1.26%. We found informant-based case finding to be useful in the identification of psychosis.Conclusions:Mental health problems are common. Nonspecialist health-care providers can be trained to identify psychiatric morbidity in the community. Their participation will help in narrowing the treatment gap. Embedding operational research to DMHP will make scaling up more efficient.

IntroductionIn low/middle-income countries (LMICs), the prevalence of people diagnosed with dementia is expected to increase substantially and treatment options are limited, with acetylcholinesterase inhibitors not used as frequently as in high-income countries (HICs). Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is a group-based, brief, non-pharmacological intervention for people with dementia that significantly improves cognition and quality of life in clinical trials and is cost-effective in HIC. However, its implementation in other countries is less researched. This protocol describes CST-International; an implementation research study of CST. The aim of this research is to develop, test, refine and disseminate implementation strategies for CST for people with mild to moderate dementia in three LMICs: Brazil (upper middle-income), India (lower middle-income) and Tanzania (low-income).Methods and analysisFour overlapping phases: (1) exploration of barriers to implementation in each country using meetings with stakeholders, including clinicians, policymakers, people with dementia and their families; (2) development of implementation plans for each country; (3) evaluation of implementation plans using a study of CST in each country (n=50, total n=150). Outcomes will include adherence, attendance, acceptability and attrition, agreed parameters of success, outcomes (cognition, quality of life, activities of daily living) and cost/affordability; (4) refinement and dissemination of implementation strategies, enabling ongoing pathways to practice which address barriers and facilitators to implementation.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted for each country. There are no documented adverse effects associated with CST and data held will be in accordance with relevant legislation. Train the trainer models will be developed to increase CST provision in each country and policymakers/governmental bodies will be continually engaged with to aid successful implementation. Findings will be disseminated at conferences, in peer-reviewed articles and newsletters, in collaboration with Alzheimer’s Disease International, and via ongoing engagement with key policymakers.