Uncertainty remains regarding the predictive value of various glycemic measures as they relate to the risk of diabetes and its complications. Using the cutoffs recommended by the American Diabetes Association's 2010 criteria, we determined the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h postload glucose (2h-PG), and HbA 1c with the outcomes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSBaseline medical history, FPG, 2h-PG, and HbA 1c were obtained from a populationbased cohort of 193,846 adults aged ‡40 years in China during 2011-2012. A follow-up visit was conducted during 2014-2016 in order to assess incident diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and mortality.
RESULTSWe documented 8,063 cases of diabetes, 3,014 CVD-related events, 1,624 cases of cancer, and 2,409 deaths during up to 5 years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted risk ratios (95% CIs) of diabetes associated with prediabetes based on FPG of 100-125 mg/dL, 2h-PG of 140-199 mg/dL, or HbA 1c of 5.7-6.4% (39-47 mmol/mol) were 1.60 (1.43-1.79), 2.72 (2.43-3.04), and 1.49 (1.36-1.62), respectively. Restricted cubic spline analyses suggested J-shaped associations of FPG, 2h-PG, and HbA 1c levels with CVD, cancer, and mortality. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) associated with untreated diabetes based on FPG ‡126 mg/dL, 2h-PG ‡200 mg/dL, or HbA 1c ‡6.