Purpose The aim of this work was to investigate the risk factors for cement leakage and new-onset OVCF after Percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and to develop and validate a clinical prediction model (Nomogram). Methods Patients with Osteoporotic VCF (OVCF) treated with PVP at Liuzhou People’s Hospital from June 2016 to June 2018 were reviewed and met the inclusion criteria. Relevant data affecting bone cement leakage and new onset of OVCF were collected. Predictors were screened using univariate and multi-factor logistic analysis to construct Nomogram and web calculators. The consistency of the prediction models was assessed using calibration plots, and their predictive power was assessed by tenfold cross-validation. Clinical value was assessed using Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact plots. Results Higher BMI was associated with lower bone mineral density (BMD). Higher BMI, lower BMD, multiple vertebral fractures, no previous anti-osteoporosis treatment, and steroid use were independent risk factors for new vertebral fractures. Cement injection volume, time to surgery, and multiple vertebral fractures were risk factors for cement leakage after PVP. The development and validation of the Nomogram also demonstrated the predictive ability and clinical value of the model. Conclusions The established Nomogram and web calculator (https://dr-lee.shinyapps.io/RefractureApp/) (https://dr-lee.shinyapps.io/LeakageApp/) can effectively predict the occurrence of cement leakage and new OVCF after PVP.

BackgroundRegional lymph node metastasis is a contributor for poor prognosis in osteosarcoma. However, studies on risk factors for predicting regional lymph node metastasis in osteosarcoma are scarce. This study aimed to develop and validate a model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms.MethodsA total of 1201 patients, with 1094 cases from the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER) (the training set) and 107 cases (the external validation set) admitted from four medical centers in China, was included in this study. Independent risk factors for the risk of lymph node metastasis were screened by the multifactorial logistic regression models. Six ML algorithms, including the logistic regression (LR), the gradient boosting machine (GBM), the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), the random forest (RF), the decision tree (DT), and the multilayer perceptron (MLP), were used to evaluate the risk of lymph node metastasis. The prediction model was developed based on the bestpredictive performance of ML algorithm and the performance of the model was evaluatedby the area under curve (AUC), prediction accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. A homemade online calculator was capable of estimating the probability of lymph node metastasis in individuals.ResultsOf all included patients, 9.41% (113/1201) patients developed regional lymph node metastasis. ML prediction models were developed based on nine variables: age, tumor (T) stage, metastasis (M) stage, laterality, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, bone metastases, and lung metastases. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, T and M stage, surgery, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with lymph node metastasis. In the six ML algorithms, XGB had the highest AUC (0.882) and was utilized to develop as prediction model. A homemade online calculator was capable of estimating the probability of CLNM in individuals.ConclusionsT and M stage, surgery and Chemotherapy are independent risk factors for predicting lymph node metastasis among osteosarcoma patients. XGB algorithm has the best predictive performance, and the online risk calculator can help clinicians to identify the risk probability of lymph node metastasis among osteosarcoma patients.

BackgroundBone is a common target of metastasis in kidney cancer, and accurately predicting the risk of bone metastases (BMs) facilitates risk stratification and precision medicine in kidney cancer.MethodsPatients diagnosed with kidney cancer were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to comprise the training group from 2010 to 2017, and the validation group was drawn from our academic medical center. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses explored the statistical relationships between the included variables and BM. Statistically significant risk factors were applied to develop a nomogram. Calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, probability density functions (PDF), and clinical utility curves (CUC) were used to verify the predictive performance. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves demonstrated survival differences between two subgroups of kidney cancer with and without BMs. A convenient web calculator was provided for users via “shiny” package.ResultsA total of 43,503 patients were recruited in this study, of which 42,650 were training group cases and 853 validation group cases. The variables included in the nomogram were sex, pathological grade, T-stage, N-stage, sequence number, brain metastases, liver metastasis, pulmonary metastasis, histological type, primary site, and laterality. The calibration plots confirmed good agreement between the prediction model and the actual results. The area under the curve (AUC) values in the training and validation groups were 0.952 (95% CI, 0.950–0.954) and 0.836 (95% CI, 0.809–0.860), respectively. Based on CUC, we recommend a threshold probability of 5% to guide the diagnosis of BMs.ConclusionsThe comprehensive predictive tool consisting of nomogram and web calculator contributes to risk stratification which helped clinicians identify high-risk cases and provide personalized treatment options.

Background The prognosis of lung metastasis (LM) in patients with chondrosarcoma was poor. The aim of this study was to construct a prognostic nomogram to predict the risk of LM, which was imperative and helpful for clinical diagnosis and treatment. Methods Data of all chondrosarcoma patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 was queried from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. In this retrospective study, a total of 944 patients were enrolled and randomly splitting into training sets (n = 644) and validation cohorts(n = 280) at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the prognostic nomogram. The predictive ability of the nomogram model was assessed by calibration plots and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve, while decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) were applied to measure predictive accuracy and clinical practice. Moreover, the nomogram was validated by the internal cohort. Results Five independent risk factors including age, sex, marital, tumor size, and lymph node involvement were identified by univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Calibration plots indicated great discrimination power of nomogram, while DCA and CIC presented that the nomogram had great clinical utility. In addition, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve provided a predictive ability in the training sets (AUC = 0.789, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.789–0.808) and the validation cohorts (AUC = 0.796, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.744–0.841). Conclusion In our study, the nomogram accurately predicted risk factors of LM in patients with chondrosarcoma, which may guide surgeons and oncologists to optimize individual treatment and make a better clinical decisions. Trial registration JOSR-D-20-02045, 29 Dec 2020.