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Accurately forecasting the scope of coal mining subsidence area is of great significance to the protection of surface structures. Due to the peculiarities of the unconsolidated layers rock formation, the surface movement of the thick unconsolidated layers mining area converges slowly at the boundary of the basin, and the boundary of the subsidence basin is larger than under conventional conditions. It is found that the existing models have a poor prediction effect at the boundary, and the predicted subsidence basin range is smaller than the actual basin range. To solve this problem, a new surface deformation prediction model based on Boltzmann function (IB) is proposed in this paper. Aiming at the problem that the model function is highly nonlinear and difficult to obtain parameters, the multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGA) is introduced into the parameter solution of the prediction model, and the parameter calculation model based on multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGAIB) is constructed. The simulation experiment and engineering example analysis show that both the overall fitting effect and the fitting effect at the boundary of IB model are closer to the actual situation, The MPGAIB model has good ability to anti-random error and gross error, and the result is stable. INDEX TERMSmining subsidence, parameter calculation, Probability integral method, prediction model, thick unconsolidated layers List of abbreviations IB-Improved Boltzmann function MPGA-Multi-population genetic algorithm MPGAIB -Multi-population genetic algorithm parameter model PIM-Probability integral method SIE-Semi-infinitive Extraction FE-Finite Extraction FEAS-Finite extraction along strike FEAD-Finite extraction along dip NUM-The number of populations LNUM-The number of individuals in each population GGAP-The generation gap NVAR-The dimension of the variable Pc-The crossover probability Pm-The mutation probability MAXGEN -The optimal individual maintains the least algebra RMSE-Root Mean

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In order to improve the accuracy of the surface dynamic prediction model in mining areas with thick unconsolidated layers and improve Knothe time function, the influence coefficient was firstly changed into the coefficient in exponential form, and the influence coefficient of unconsolidated layer was added. Then, a subsidence basin prediction model for mining under thick unconsolidated layers was established. Next, the model was combined with the improved Knothe function, thus constructing a new mining subsidence prediction model. The new subsidence prediction model was applied in 1414 (1) working face in Huainan mining area. The results showed that the integrated model could better reflect the subsidence process, and the prediction values and the measured values agreed well.