A hybrid method consisting of bow-tie-Bayesian network (BT-BN) analysis and fuzzy theory is proposed in this research, in order to support predictive analysis of settlement risk during shield tunnel excavation. We verified the method by running a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for a tunnel section in the Wuhan metro system. Firstly, we defined the “normal excavation phase” based on the fuzzy statistical test theory. We eliminated the noise records in the tunnel construction log and extracted the occurrence probability of facility failures from the denoised database. We then obtained the occurrence probability of environmental failures, operational errors, and multiple failures via aggregation of weighted expert opinions. The expert opinions were collected in the form of fuzzy numbers, including triangular numbers and trapezoidal numbers. Afterwards, we performed the BT-BN analysis. We mapped the bow-tie analysis to the Bayesian network and built a causal network PSA model consisting of 16 nodes. Causes of the excessive surface settlement and the resulting surface collapse were determined by bow-tie analysis. The key nodes of accidents were determined by introducing three key measures into the Bayesian inference. Finally, we described the safety measures for the key nodes based on the PSA results. These safety measures were capable of reducing the failure occurrence probability (in one year) of excessive surface settlement by 66%, thus lowering the accident probability caused by excessive surface settlement.

The launching-arrival stage of the shield is the most dangerous construction stage in subway construction. During the conversion process of the soil and air medium in the shield machine, water inrush at the excavation surface often occurs because of the effect of groundwater. Previous research has focused on the overall stress and deformation of existing tunnels caused by water inrush from the excavation face of the shield machine excavation stage. However, the stress and deformation states of the segments and anchors at different assembly locations of the tunnel, as well as the interaction between the soil reinforcement region and the segments and anchors in the launching-arrival stage have not been considered in previous studies. In this study, the inrush model of the launching-arrival stage of the subway shield was established by utilizing the equivalent refinement modeling technology and ABAQUS simulation analysis with consideration of the fluid-solid coupling effect of water and soil to study the influences of different water head differences on the mechanical and deformation properties of segments and anchors in shield construction under the conditions of water inrush on the excavation surface. The results showed that the water inflow from the tunnel excavation surface caused significant surface subsidence at the tunnel portal, vertical convergence at the cross section of the shield tunnel, and significant increases in the axial and shear forces on the bolt. In addition, based on the existing subway regulation, combined with the simulation results of soil reinforcement measures at different depths, the emergency control criterion for controlling water inrush on the excavation surface was established by using the depth of soil reinforcement. The minimum depth of the reinforced soil from the ground surface at 15 m is recommended to ensure construction safety of the subway shield at the launching-arrival stage.