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The World Health Organization has declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic in early 2020. A comprehensive understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of this virus is crucial to limit its spreading. Therefore, this research applies artificial intelligence-based models to predict the prevalence of the COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt. These models are long short-term memory network (LSTM), convolutional neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network. They are trained and validated using the dataset records from 14 February 2020 to 15 August 2020. The results of the models are evaluated using the determination coefficient and root mean square error. The LSTM model exhibits the best performance in forecasting the cumulative infections for one week and one month ahead. Finally, the LSTM model with the optimal parameter values is applied to forecast the spread of this epidemic for one month ahead using the data from 14 February 2020 to 30 June 2021. The total size of infections, recoveries, and deaths is estimated to be 285,939, 234,747, and 17,251 cases on 31 July 2021. This study could assist the decision-makers in developing and monitoring policies to confront this disease.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address this challenge, a thorough examination of the pandemic’s influence on four SDGs in Egypt is presented in a system dynamic model. The addressed goals are related to no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), and climate action (SDG 13). The model is simulated over 35 years extending from 2015 to 2050. Furthermore, a web-based interactive learning environment is developed to analyze the interdependencies among public health activities and study the impacts of possible intervention countermeasures or prevention policies. Indicators including poverty line, food insecurity, gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are evaluated to track Egypt’s performance in relation to SDGs 1, 2, 8, and 13. According to the simulation model, the poverty line will continue to decline until it reaches around 16% by 2050. According to the significant governmental efforts to follow its vision of 2030, Egypt can achieve a decreasing percentage of food insecurity, reaching 3% in 2030, and this percentage will continue to decrease until it reaches full sufficiency by 2050. The GDP growth rate will rise every year until it reaches 13.71% in 2050. With respect to climate, GHG emissions are predicted to fall to roughly 97 Mt CO2-equivalents by 2050. This approach revitalizes debates about the achievement of SDGs amid the crisis and acts as a powerful tool that aids decision-makers in identifying leverage points to avoid the long-term negative repercussions of the crisis on the economy, people, and environment.

ABSTRACT. Governments in developing countries serve low income people by constructing low income housing projects. Most of total life cycle cost (LCC) of these projects is incurred during the operational phase, making these projects lose their economic aspect of sustainability. Decreasing the cost of low income housing projects and taking into consideration the available resources are two crucial facets that should be taken into consideration. Therefore, this paper focuses on two aspects of the sustainability of building through its life cycle, which are environmental and economic aspects using environmentally friendly materials in construction. To accomplish this aim, a framework is developed that integrates Building Information Modeling (BIM) with computer simulation, optimization and system dynamics in Low Income Housing (LIH) projects. The developed framework helps in determining LIH project duration and selecting the optimum alternative with to material systems. The sustainability aspects of building are achieved by considering a LCC of these buildings and the number of points that can be awarded under the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system. It aids government and/or contractors in adopting BIM technology to minimize life cycle cost while achieving maximum LEED materials credits points for LIH projects. Social Housing project in Badr City-Egypt is considered as a case study to demonstrate the use of the developed prototype and to illustrate its essential features. The results have shown that selection of sustainablebuilding materials for the construction has a crucial role in the formation of a sustainable building as they affect the performance of building. Therefore, the Egyptian government should consider building materials with sustainable properties and a low LCC in the design phase to mitigate the negative impacts of LIH projects.