Background: Although mortality remains high in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), there have been limited studies exploring machine learning (ML) models on mortality risk prediction in patients with AF.Objectives: This study sought to develop an ML model that captures important variables in order to predict all-cause mortality in AF patients.Methods: In this single center prospective study, an ML-based mortality prediction model was developed and validated using a dataset of 2,012 patients who experienced AF from November 2018 to February 2020 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College. The dataset was randomly divided into a training set (70%, n = 1,223) and a validation set (30%, n = 552). A total of 122 features were collected for variable selection. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forest (RF) algorithms were used for variable selection. Ten ML models were developed using variables selected by LASSO or RF. The best model was selected and compared with conventional risk scores. A nomogram and user-friendly online tool were developed to facilitate the mortality predictions and management recommendations.Results: Thirteen features were selected by the LASSO regression algorithm. The LASSO-Cox model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.842 in the training dataset, and 0.854 in the validation dataset. A nomogram based on eight independent features was developed for the prediction of survival at 30, 180, and 365 days following discharge. Both the time dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) showed better performances of the nomogram compared to the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED models.Conclusions: The LASSO-Cox mortality predictive model shows potential benefits in death risk evaluation for AF patients over the 365-day period following discharge. This novel ML approach may also provide physicians with personalized management recommendations.

Background: Low-dose rivaroxaban and low-intensity warfarin are widely used in Asia for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, in Asians, it is unclear whether low-dose rivaroxaban and low-intensity warfarin can improve the prognosis of AF. In this study, we investigate the survival benefits of low-dose rivaroxaban and low-intensity warfarin in Asian patients with AF in clinical practice.Methods: This cohort study used medical records in a single tertiary hospital in China, between 2019 and 2020, to identify patients with AF who used rivaroxaban or warfarin, or had no anticoagulant therapy. Follow-ups were performed through telephone contact or medical record review. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the risk of mortality of patients in the anticoagulant-untreated group vs. warfarin-treated groups and rivaroxaban-treated groups.Results: A total of 1727 AF patients, discharged between 2019 and 2020, were enrolled in this cohort, of which 873 patients did not use any anticoagulant, 457 patients received warfarin and 397 patients used rivaroxaban. Multivariable analysis showed that, of all the warfarin groups, patients with an international normalized ratio (INR) below 2, good INR control, or poor INR control had a significantly lower risk of mortality compared with that of patients without anticoagulants (HR 0.309, p = 0.0001; HR 0.387, p = 0.0238; HR 0.363, p < 0.0001). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses also demonstrated that, compared with the no anticoagulant group, all rivaroxaban dosage groups (≤10 mg, HR 0.456, p = 0.0129; 15 mg, HR 0.246, p = 0.0003; 20 mg, HR 0.264, p = 0.0237) were significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality.Conclusion: Despite effects being smaller than observed with recommended optimal anticoagulation, the use of warfarin with an INR below 2, poor INR control and the use of low-dose rivaroxaban may still provide survival benefits, suggesting viable alternatives that enable physicians to better resolve decisional conflicts concerning the risks and benefits of anticoagulant therapies, as well as for patients in need of but unable to receive standard anticoagulant therapy due to bleeding risk or other factors, such as financial burden, concerns of adverse outcomes, as well as low treatment compliance and persistence.

Background Dyslipidemia and local inflammation at sites of lipid deposition on blood vessel walls have been demonstrated to be risk factors for patients with acute aortic dissection (AAD). Statins have anti-inflammatory and lipid-lowering effects, which suggest that statins may play an important role in the prevention and treatment of AAD. Some retrospective studies show that statins can protect patients with aortic dissection. However, the effect of statins on the survival of AAD patients has been scarcely investigated, especially in randomized trials. In this study, we will perform a randomized clinical trial to understand whether statins can reduce in-hospital mortality of AAD patients. Methods A total of 384 subjects diagnosed with AAD in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College will be recruited. Participants will be randomly divided into an atorvastatin-treated or control group. The primary outcome will be the in-hospital mortality at 30 days. Discussion This study is designed to verify the efficacy of atorvastatin on reducing in-hospital mortality of patients with AAD. The aim is to provide a new means of improving survival as a complement to conventional drug therapy. Trial registration Chinese Clinical Trials Registry ChiCTR1900023515. Registered on 1 June 2019.

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Background: Dyslipidemia and local inflammation at sites of lipid deposition on blood vessel walls have been demonstrated to be risk factors for patients with acute aortic dissection (AAD). Statins have anti-inflammatory and lipid-lowering effects, which suggest that statins may play an important role in prevention and treatment of AAD. Some retrospective studies show that statins can protect patients with aortic dissection. However, the effect of statins on survival of AAD patients have been scarcely investigated, especially in randomized trials. In this study, we will perform a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the effect of statins on in-hospital mortality of AAD patients. Methods: A total of 384 subjects diagnosed with AAD in the First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College will be recruited. Participants will be randomly divided into atorvastatin-treated or placebo groups. The primary outcome will be the in-hospital mortality. Discussion: This study is designed to verify the safety and efficacy of atorvastatin in patients with AAD. The aim is to provide a new way to improve survival as a complement to conventional drug therapy.Trial registration: Registered by Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (Registration number:ChiCTR1900023515,http://www.chictr.org.cn/edit.aspx?pid=38275&htm=4).Registered 1 June 2019.