Many cohort studies in environmental epidemiology require accurate modeling and prediction of fine scale spatial variation in ambient air quality across the U.S. This modeling requires the use of small spatial scale geographic or “land use” regression covariates and some degree of spatial smoothing. Furthermore, the details of the prediction of air quality by land use regression and the spatial variation in ambient air quality not explained by this regression should be allowed to vary across the continent due to the large scale heterogeneity in topography, climate, and sources of air pollution. This paper introduces a regionalized national universal kriging model for annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) monitoring data across the U.S. To take full advantage of an extensive database of land use covariates we chose to use the method of Partial Least Squares, rather than variable selection, for the regression component of the model (the “universal” in “universal kriging”) with regression coefficients and residual variogram models allowed to vary across three regions defined as West Coast, Mountain West, and East. We demonstrate a very high level of cross-validated accuracy of prediction with an overall R2 of 0.88 and well-calibrated predictive intervals. In accord with the spatially varying characteristics of PM2.5 on a national scale and differing kriging smoothness parameters, the accuracy of the prediction varies by region with predictive intervals being notably wider in the West Coast and Mountain West in contrast to the East.

BackgroundExposure to air pollution has been consistently associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, but mechanisms remain uncertain. Associations with blood pressure (BP) may help to explain the cardiovascular effects of air pollution.ObjectiveWe examined the cross-sectional relationship between long-term (annual average) residential air pollution exposure and BP in the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences’ Sister Study, a large U.S. cohort study investigating risk factors for breast cancer and other outcomes.MethodsThis analysis included 43,629 women 35–76 years of age, enrolled 2003–2009, who had a sister with breast cancer. Geographic information systems contributed to satellite-based nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (≤ 2.5 μm; PM2.5) predictions at participant residences at study entry. Generalized additive models were used to examine the relationship between pollutants and measured BP at study entry, adjusting for cardiovascular disease risk factors and including thin plate splines for potential spatial confounding.ResultsA 10-μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with 1.4-mmHg higher systolic BP (95% CI: 0.6, 2.3; p < 0.001), 1.0-mmHg higher pulse pressure (95% CI: 0.4, 1.7; p = 0.001), 0.8-mmHg higher mean arterial pressure (95% CI: 0.2, 1.4; p = 0.01), and no significant association with diastolic BP. A 10-ppb increase in NO2 was associated with a 0.4-mmHg (95% CI: 0.2, 0.6; p < 0.001) higher pulse pressure.ConclusionsLong-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were associated with higher blood pressure. On a population scale, such air pollution–related increases in blood pressure could, in part, account for the increases in cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality seen in prior studies.CitationChan SH, Van Hee VC, Bergen S, Szpiro AA, DeRoo LA, London SJ, Marshall JD, Kaufman JD, Sandler DP. 2015. Long-term air pollution exposure and blood pressure in the Sister Study. Environ Health Perspect 123:951–958; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408125

Background: Studies estimating health effects of long-term air pollution exposure often use a two-stage approach: building exposure models to assign individual-level exposures, which are then used in regression analyses. This requires accurate exposure modeling and careful treatment of exposure measurement error.Objective: To illustrate the importance of accounting for exposure model characteristics in two-stage air pollution studies, we considered a case study based on data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Methods: We built national spatial exposure models that used partial least squares and universal kriging to estimate annual average concentrations of four PM2.5 components: elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), silicon (Si), and sulfur (S). We predicted PM2.5 component exposures for the MESA cohort and estimated cross-sectional associations with carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), adjusting for subject-specific covariates. We corrected for measurement error using recently developed methods that account for the spatial structure of predicted exposures.Results: Our models performed well, with cross-validated R2 values ranging from 0.62 to 0.95. Naïve analyses that did not account for measurement error indicated statistically significant associations between CIMT and exposure to OC, Si, and S. EC and OC exhibited little spatial correlation, and the corrected inference was unchanged from the naïve analysis. The Si and S exposure surfaces displayed notable spatial correlation, resulting in corrected confidence intervals (CIs) that were 50% wider than the naïve CIs, but that were still statistically significant.Conclusion: The impact of correcting for measurement error on health effect inference is concordant with the degree of spatial correlation in the exposure surfaces. Exposure model characteristics must be considered when performing two-stage air pollution epidemiologic analyses because naïve health effect inference may be inappropriate.Citation: Bergen S, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Kim SY, Richards M, Vedal S, Kaufman JD, Szpiro AA. 2013. A national prediction model for PM2.5 component exposures and measurement error–corrected health effect inference. Environ Health Perspect 121:1017–1025; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206010

Long-term exposure to outdoor particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) has been associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The chemical composition of PM2.5 that may be most responsible for producing these associations has not been identified. We assessed cross-sectional associations between long-term concentrations of PM2.5 and 4 of its chemical components (sulfur, silicon, elemental carbon, and organic carbon (OC)) and subclinical atherosclerosis, measured as carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and coronary artery calcium, between 2000 and 2002 among 5,488 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants residing in 6 US metropolitan areas. Long-term concentrations of PM2.5 components at participants' homes were predicted using both city-specific spatiotemporal models and a national spatial model. The estimated differences in CIMT associated with interquartile-range increases in sulfur, silicon, and OC predictions from the spatiotemporal model were 0.022 mm (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.014, 0.031), 0.006 mm (95% CI: 0.000, 0.012), and 0.026 mm (95% CI: 0.019, 0.034), respectively. Findings were generally similar using the national spatial model predictions but were often sensitive to adjustment for city. We did not find strong evidence of associations with coronary artery calcium. Long-term concentrations of sulfur and OC, and possibly silicon, were associated with CIMT using 2 distinct exposure prediction modeling approaches.

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