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To achieve exascale computing, fundamental hardware architectures must change. The most significant consequence of this assertion is the impact on the scientific applications that run on current high performance computing (HPC) systems, many of which codify years of scientific domain knowledge and refinements for contemporary computer systems. In order to adapt to exascale architectures, developers must be able to reason about new hardware and determine what programming models and algorithms will provide the best blend of performance and energy efficiency into the future. While many details of the exascale architectures are undefined, an abstract machine model is designed to allow application developers to focus on the aspects of the machine that are important or relevant to performance and code structure. These models are intended as communication aids between application developers and hardware architects during the co-design process. We use the term proxy architecture to describe a parameterized version of an abstract machine model, with the parameters added to elucidate potential speeds and capacities of key hardware components. These more detailed architectural models are formulated to enable discussion between the developers of analytic models and simulators and computer hardware architects. They allow for application performance analysis and hardware optimization opportunities. In this report our goal is to provide the application development community with a set of models that can help software developers prepare for exascale. In addition, use of proxy architectures, through the use of proxy architectures, we can enable a more concrete exploration of how well application codes map onto the future architectures.

There are a number of challenges facing the High Performance Computing (HPC) community, including increasing levels of concurrency (threads, cores, nodes), deeper and more complex memory hierarchies (register, cache, disk, network), mixed hardware sets (CPUs and GPUs) and increasing scale (tens or hundreds of thousands of processing elements). Assessing the performance of complex scientific applications on specialised high-performance computing architectures is difficult. In many cases, traditional computer benchmarking is insufficient as it typically requires access to physical machines of equivalent (or similar) specification and rarely relates to the potential capability of an application. A technique known as application performance modelling addresses many of these additional requirements. Modelling allows future architectures and/or applications to be explored in a mathematical or simulated setting, thus enabling hypothetical questions relating to the configuration of a potential future architecture to be assessed in terms of its impact on key scientific codes. This paper describes the Warwick Performance Prediction (WARPP) simulator, which is used to construct application performance models for complex industry-strength parallel scientific codes executing on thousands of processing cores. The capability and accuracy of the simulator is demonstrated through its application to a scientific benchmark developed by the United Kingdom Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE). The results of the simulations are validated for two different HPC architectures, each case demonstrating a greater than 90% accuracy for run-time prediction. Simulation results, collected from runs on a standard PC, are provided for up to 65,000 processor cores. It is also shown how the addition of operating system jitter to the simulator can improve the quality of the application performance model results.