A multilayer perceptron neural network cloud mask for Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) images is introduced and evaluated. The model is trained for cloud detection on MSG SEVIRI daytime data. It consists of a multi-layer perceptron with one hidden sigmoid layer, trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. The model is fed by six bands of MSG data (0.6, 0.8, 1.6, 3.9, 6.2 and 10.8 μm) with 10 hidden nodes. The multiple-layer perceptrons lead to a cloud detection accuracy of 88.96%, when trained to map two predefined values that classify cloud and clear sky. The network was further evaluated using sixty MSG images taken at different dates. The network detected not only bright thick clouds but also thin or less bright clouds. The analysis demonstrated the feasibility of using machine learning models of cloud detection in MSG SEVIRI imagery.

In this paper, several models to forecast the hourly solar irradiance with a day in advance using artificial neural network techniques have been developed and analyzed. The forecast irradiance is the one incident on the plane of the modules array of a photovoltaic plant. Pure statistical (ST) models that use only local measured data and model output statistics (MOS) approaches to refine numerical weather prediction data are tested for the University of Rome “Tor Vergata” site. The performance of ST and MOS, together with the persistence model (PM), is compared. The ST models improve the performance of the PM of around 20%. The combination of ST and NWP in the MOS approach gives the best performance, improving the forecast of approximately 39% with respect to the PM.

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