In this paper, we assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the bankruptcy risk of a sample of 100 hotel companies and, consequently, on the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. The assessment applies to the period, 2019–2026, with the use of the data on the financial indicators for 2015–2020. Five novel structural time-series models, which have the indicators derived from Altman’s EM Z”-score model as predictors, were used, and a new conceptual framework for assessing bankruptcy risk is provided. The framework expands the applicability of credit-risk-scoring models to multiyear predictions, and it takes into account the dynamism of the transitions of the firms among Altman’s risk zones. The predictions that were obtained when the Springate and Zmijewski scores were applied along with the Altman Z”-scores demonstrate the fair applicability of the scores for the models that are introduced here. The results of the models were confirmed by 270 artificial neural networks and they were compared to the results of the classical time-series models. The crisis started to have a negative effect on bankruptcy risk in 2020, and this effect is expected to rise until 2023; currently, in 2022, the highest number of hotel companies may be headed for bankruptcy. Amelioration in the position of the companies cannot be expected before 2024; however, even in 2026, the risk of bankruptcy will remain high when compared to the pre-COVID-19 period and, thus, the surviving companies will become more fragile to any further exogenous changes. These results provide a basis for the adaption of state-supported measures and business policies in order to withstand the crisis and to ensure sustainability.
Scholars have emphasised the importance of green settings in today’s business paradigms. Studies on green behaviour have produced a plethora of noteworthy discoveries, whether focused on financial success, individual capabilities, or development. However, despite significant growth in interest in green business practices, the relationship between individuals’ willingness and green competencies has received little attention. This article used the customised green competencies conceptual model to investigate how green skills influence organisational performance and their relationship with the willingness moment. This article developed an innovative human resource management approach to address these difficulties. A questionnaire was used to perform empirical statistical research with 516 respondents from Serbian universities. Different mathematical and statistical methodologies were used to analyse the results. The findings corroborate the suggested theoretical model, and they suggest that green competencies will influence people’s willingness to participate in green activities. This article gives new information on human behaviour and organisational effectiveness in a green atmosphere. It includes managerial and practical consequences and recommendations for businesses looking to improve their social responsibility and environmental sustainability.
As an important topic in the field of corporate governance, the influence of the board of directors’ characteristics on the profitability of corporations is examined here. This paper examines the influence of the board of directors’ and chief executive officers’ (CEO) characteristics on the profitability of banks in Serbia. In this study, the characteristics of boards of directors were examined in terms of size and the participation of women, and the characteristics of CEOs were examined similarly in terms of women’s participation. The research was conducted on a sample of 23 commercial banks from Serbia in the period from 2017 to 2021. Profitability was measured by the rate of return on operating assets (ROA) and the rate of return on equity (ROE). The results of the panel regression analysis indicate that the size of the board of directors had a positive impact on bank profitability during the COVID-19 pandemic period, while this impact was not statistically significant before the pandemic. The participation of women on the board of directors did not have a statistically significant impact on bank profitability before or during the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been found that the participation of women as CEOs had a negative impact on bank profitability before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this paper we demonstrate a new conceptual framework in the application of multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs) to bankruptcy risk prediction using different time-delay neural network (TDNN) models to assess Altman’s EM Z“-score risk zones of firms for a sample of 100 companies operating in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. Hence, the accuracies of 9580 forecasting ANNs trained for the period 2016 to 2021 are analyzed, and the impact of various input parameters of different ANN models on their forecasting accuracy is investigated, including Altman’s bankruptcy risk indicators, market and internal nonfinancial indicators, the lengths of the learning periods of the ANNs and of their input parameters, and the K-means clusters of risk zones. Based on this research, 11 stability indicators (SIs) for the years under analysis are formulated, which represent the generalization capabilities of ANN models, i.e., differences in the generalization errors between the preceding period and the year for which zone assessment is given; these are seen as a consequence of structural changes at the industry level that occurred during the relevant year. SIs are validated through comparison with the relative strength index (RSI) for descriptive indicators of Altman’s model, and high correlation is found. Special focus is placed on the identification of the stability in 2020 in order to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis during that year. It is established that despite the fact that the development of bankruptcy risk in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia is a highly volatile process, the largest changes in the analyzed period occurred in 2020, i.e., the potential applications of ANNs for forecasting zones in 2020 are limited.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants relevant to the identity of family enterprises from the perspective of their owners, in order to determine the differences in perspective according to gender, and to point out their social role. To this end, small and medium-sized family-owned enterprises operating in Serbia were observed. The focus was on determining their identity and the wider (social) role they play. It has been established that there are significant differences in certain attitudes of the owners of small and medium-sized enterprises stemming from a difference in their genders, which affects their identities and the positioning of the role they play in society.
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