No abstract

No abstract

Bellwether effect refers to the existence of exemplary projects (called the Bellwether) within a historical dataset to be used for improved prediction performance. Recent studies have shown an implicit assumption of using recently completed projects (referred to as moving window) for improved prediction accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the Bellwether effect on software effort estimation accuracy using moving windows. The existence of the Bellwether was empirically proven based on six postulations. We apply statistical stratification and Markov chain methodology to select the Bellwether moving window. The resulting Bellwether moving window is used to predict the software effort of a new project. Empirical results show that Bellwether effect exist in chronological datasets with a set of exemplary and recently completed projects representing the Bellwether moving window. Result from this study has shown that the use of Bellwether moving window with the Gaussian weighting function significantly improve the prediction accuracy.

Context: In addressing how best to estimate how much effort is required to develop software, a recent study found that using exemplary and recently completed projects [forming Bellwether moving windows (BMW)] in software effort prediction (SEP) models leads to relatively improved accuracy. More studies need to be conducted to determine whether the BMW yields improved accuracy in general, since different sizing and aging parameters of the BMW are known to affect accuracy. Objective: To investigate the existence of exemplary projects (Bellwethers) with defined window size and age parameters, and whether their use in SEP improves prediction accuracy. Method: We empirically investigate the moving window assumption based on the theory that the prediction outcome of a future event depends on the outcomes of prior events. Sampling of Bellwethers was undertaken using three introduced Bellwether methods (SSPM, SysSam, and RandSam). The ergodic Markov chain was used to determine the stationarity of the Bell-wethers. Results: Empirical results show that 1) Bellwethers exist in SEP and 2) the BMW has an approximate size of 50 to 80 exemplary projects that should not be more than 2 years old relative to the new projects to be estimated. Conclusion: The study's results add further weight to the recommended use of Bellwethers for improved prediction accuracy in SEP.

The adverse effect of fossil fuels on the environment is driving research to explore alternative energy sources. Research studies have demonstrated that renewables can offer a promising strategy to curb the problem, among which thermoelectric technology stands tall. However, the challenge with thermoelectric materials comes from the conflicting property of the Seebeck coefficient and the electrical conductivity resulting in a low power factor and hence a lower figure of merit. Researchers have reported various techniques to enhance the figure of merit, particularly in metal chalcogenide thermoelectric materials.Here we present a review on isovalent substitution as a tool to decouple the interdependency of the electrical conductivity and Seebeck coefficient to facilitate simultaneous enhancement in these two parameters. This is proven true in both cationic and anionic side substitutions in metal chalcogenide thermoelectric materials. Numerous publications relating to isovalent substitution in metal chalcogenide thermoelectric are reviewed. This will serve as a direction for current and future research to enhance thermoelectric performance and device application. This review substantiates the role of isovalent substitution in enhancing metal chalcogenide thermoelectric properties compared with conventional systems.