PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative model which helps enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementers in Egypt to predict their implementation success as a function of achieved critical success factors and the organizational culture.Design/methodology/approachA conceptual framework is formulated and operationalized based on existing literature and a series of interviews with key persons involved in ERP implementation in Egypt. A cross‐sectional survey involving 45 ERP implementers is conducted to collect data used to fit the developed model.FindingsHalf the surveyed ERP implementations are considered failures according to the research success metrics. While the critical success factors positively contribute to the success of an ERP implementation, the Egyptian organizational culture hinders its progress. The concept of integration provided by ERP systems is considered relatively new to the Egyptian organizations.Research limitations/implicationsThe surveyed sample size is considered relatively small, which partially restricts the generalization of results to the whole population of ERP Egyptian adopters. Future research will involve combining detailed case studies and a larger survey.Practical implicationsERP adopters should periodically evaluate their implementation process using risk analysis tools for ensuring optimum benefits and avoiding any problems that may occur. Furthermore, the Egyptian organizational culture should be carefully considered while implementing an off‐shelf ERP system.Originality/valueThis paper research adds to the growing body of knowledge on ERP implementations, a study of ERP implementation in the Egyptian settings. For practitioners, it provides ERP adopters with a self‐evaluation tool that helps them to monitor and predict the likelihood of project success.

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1. Shallow groundwater aquifers regularly support drought refuges for water-dependent ecosystems. However, many aquifers are impacted by over-extraction and pollution, potentially degrading their ability to support groundwater-fed drought refuges. 2. We investigated the response of groundwater-connected riverine forests to a drought considered equivalent in intensity to those predicted under severe climate change for 2030. The drought's impact was investigated in an area where shallow groundwater resources are heavily exploited and polluted by salinization. 3. We used remotely sensed vegetation productivity (enhanced vegetation index) data from a long-term data set (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011) at 475 riverine forest sites in the Campaspe catchment, southeastern Australia. Generalized additive mixed models and boosted regression trees were used to model the relationship between groundwater and other environmental covariates with forest change during drought. 4. Models explained up to 44% of the variation in forest change during drought. Forests underwent the greatest declines in areas of high salinity (>6000 lS cm À1 ) associated with shallow groundwater depths (0-5 m). Conversely, forests in areas of lowest salinity (<2000 lS cm À1 ) and groundwater depths of more than 7Á5 m showed the least decline during drought. 5. In landscapes where groundwater quality is not compromised, previous studies have shown that shallow groundwater provides important drought refuges and refugia. Here, we show that when groundwater salinization has occurred, forests connected to shallow groundwater are more vulnerable to drought. In effect, salinization reduces the capacity of groundwater-connected habitats to function as drought refuges. 6. Synthesis and applications. Currently, there is an emphasis on managing environmental flows to support freshwater ecosystems and associated forests under water stress. However, delivery of environmental water is restricted to areas within a linear stream network and there is often limited capacity to deliver environmental flows during drought. Alternatively, a focus on drought refuges and refugia and processes important for maintaining groundwater quality (e.g. catchment revegetation to reduce shallow groundwater salinization) may better allow drought effects to be managed across a catchment, without directly focusing on highly contested surface water resources.