Overoptimistic performance prediction is a very common feature of people's goal-directed behavior. In this study we examined overoptimistic prediction as a function of construal level. In construal level theory an explanation is set out with regard to how people make predictions through the abstract connections between past and future events, with high-level construal bridging near and distant events. We conducted 2 experiments to confirm our hypothesis that, compared with people with local, concrete construals, people with global, abstract construals would make predictions that were less overoptimistic. In Study 1 we manipulated construal level by priming mindset, and participants (n = 81) predicted the level of their productivity in an anagram task. The results supported our hypothesis. In Study 2, in order to improve the generalizability of the conclusion, we varied the manipulation of the construal level by priming a scenario, and measured performance prediction by having the participants (n = 119) estimate task duration. The results showed that high-level construal consistently decreased overoptimistic prediction, supporting our hypothesis. The theoretical implications of our findings are discussed.

This research defined the construct of Social Arousal taken from a wide spread phenomenon known as 'Buying Fever'. We conducted semi-structured interviews and performed an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to develop the construct of social arousal. In research one, 194 university students performed a survey questioner. The results of our reliability and validity tests show that the construct of Social Arousal under the condition of Buying Fever is composited by 6 different dimensions namely word-of-mouth, advertisement, conformity, fashion, uniqueness and time-pressure. In research two the data driven from 316 subjects confirmed the construct results from study one, and the empirical factor analysis results from multi-step modeling comparisons suggest that the 6 dimensions have excellent levels of fitness. Additionally, this twopart research confirmed the Social Arousal conditions found in Buying Fever and the positive correlation amongst the relationships between the 6-dimentions we defined, social comparison and consumer impulse.