High Construal Level Reduces Overoptimistic Performance Prediction

Abstract

Overoptimistic performance prediction is a very common feature of people's goal-directed behavior. In this study we examined overoptimistic prediction as a function of construal level. In construal level theory an explanation is set out with regard to how people make predictions through the abstract connections between past and future events, with high-level construal bridging near and distant events. We conducted 2 experiments to confirm our hypothesis that, compared with people with local, concrete construals, people with global, abstract construals would make predictions that were less overoptimistic. In Study 1 we manipulated construal level by priming mindset, and participants (n = 81) predicted the level of their productivity in an anagram task. The results supported our hypothesis. In Study 2, in order to improve the generalizability of the conclusion, we varied the manipulation of the construal level by priming a scenario, and measured performance prediction by having the participants (n = 119) estimate task duration. The results showed that high-level construal consistently decreased overoptimistic prediction, supporting our hypothesis. The theoretical implications of our findings are discussed.

The sequence of manipulation matters: Abstract thinking offsets ego-depletion when induced before, but not after a depleting task

“…Thus, we can rule out that an altered focus on the reduced self-control resources are responsible for the improved self-control performance under high construallevel. Experiment 2 also shows evidence that a shift away from the exhausted self-control resources under high construal-level can be excluded as an explanation: Under high construal-level over-optimism was reduced, which is in line with prior studies (Freitas et al, 2004;Yan et al, 2014).…”

Imagining better societies: A social psychological framework for the study of utopian thinking and collective action

“…High-level construal also promotes self-control (Carnevale et al, 2015;Fujita & Carnevale, 2012;MacGregor et al, 2017), a more realistic assessment of one's abilities (Yan, Hou, & Unger, 2014), and a stronger sense that one's goals are meaningful and self-concordant (Davis et al, 2016). In the context of bargaining and negotiation, which may be relevant to the implementation of social change, adopting an abstract (vs. concrete) mindset tends to increase information sharing and the likelihood of obtaining an integrative (win-win) solution (Wening et al, 2016).…”