Abstract. We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions.The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight.This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Abstract.The natural environment is a major source of atmospheric aerosols, including dust, secondary organic material from terrestrial biogenic emissions, carbonaceous particles from wildfires, and sulphate from marine phytoplankton dimethyl sulphide emissions. These aerosols also have a significant effect on many components of the Earth system such as the atmospheric radiative balance and photosynthetically available radiation entering the biosphere, the supply of nutrients to the ocean, and the albedo of snow and ice. The physical and biological systems that produce these aerosols can be highly susceptible to modification due to climate change so there is the potential for important climate feedbacks. We review the impact of these natural systems on atmospheric aerosol based on observations and models, including the potential for long term changes in emissions and the feedbacks on climate. The number of drivers of change is very large and the various systems are strongly coupled. There have therefore been very few studies that integrate the various effects to estimate climate feedback factors. Nevertheless, available observations and model studies suggest that the regional radiative perturbations are potentially several Watts per square metre due to changes in these natural aerosol emissions in a future climate. Taking into account only the direct radiative effect of changes in the atmospheric burden of natural aerosols, and neglecting potentially large effects on other parts of the Earth system, a global mean radiative perturbation approaching 1 W m −2 is possible by the end of the century. The level of scientific understanding of the climate drivers, interactions and impacts is very low.

We document the development of the first version of the U.K. Earth System Model UKESM1.The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2-ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include a new core physical model with a well-resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles and enhanced land management; tropospheric-stratospheric chemistry allowing the holistic simulation of radiative forcing from ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide; two-moment, five-species, modal aerosol; and ocean biogeochemistry with two-way coupling to the carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols. The complexity of coupling between the ocean, land, and atmosphere physical climate and biogeochemical cycles in UKESM1 is unprecedented for an Earth system model. We describe in detail the process by which the coupled model was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components. Overall, the model performs well, with a stable pre-industrial state and good agreement with observations in the latter period of its historical simulations. However, global mean surface temperature exhibits stronger-than-observed cooling from 1950 to 1970, followed by rapid warming from 1980 to 2014. Metrics from idealized simulations show a high climate sensitivity relative to previous generations of models: Equilibrium climate sensitivity is 5.4 K, transient climate response ranges from 2.68 to 2.85 K, and transient climate response to cumulative emissions is 2.49 to 2.66 K TtC −1 . Plain Language SummaryWe describe the development and behavior of UKESM1, a novel climate model that includes improved representations of processes in the atmosphere, ocean, and on land. These processes are inter-related: For example, dust is produced on the land and blown up into the atmosphere where it affects the amount of sunlight falling on Earth. Dust can also be dissolved in the ocean, where it affects marine life. This in turn changes both the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean and the material emitted from the surface into the atmosphere, which has an affect on the formation of clouds. UKESM1 includes many processes and interactions such as these, giving it a high level of complexity. Ensuring realistic process behavior is a major challenge in the development of our model, and we have carefully tested this. UKESM1 performs well, correctly exhibiting stable results from a continuous pre-industrial simulation (used to provide a reference for future experiments) and showing good agreement

Abstract. The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven -especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup ofCorrespondence to: C. D. Jones (chris.d.jones@metoffice.gov.uk) the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emissiondriven" RCP experiments were performed.

Abstract. A parameterization of mineral dust within the Hadley Centre atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is described, modeled dust distributions are compared with observations, and estimates of the radiative forcing due to the inclusion of dust in the model are obtained. The parameterization uses six particle size divisions in the range 0.3-30/zm radius, and all calculations are performed on each division independently, using the GCM's prognostic variables. The dust production scheme works within the GCM and includes dependencies on particle size distribution, soil moisture, vegetation, and friction velocity. Dust transport is carried out by the GCM's tracer advection scheme and includes vertical motion due to convection, gravitational settling, and turbulent mixing in the boundary layer. Wet and dry deposition processes are included within the GCM's precipitation schemes. Representative dust radiative parameters are incorporated into the GCM's two stream radiation code.