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Assessments of juvenile sexual offenders that are intended to aid in dispositional decisions occur at a multitude of decision points within the juvenile justice system. Despite the ubiquity of decisions that include considerations of risk, relatively little empirical work has been done on the development and validation of a risk assessment procedure for these young offenders. In this article, we discuss our initial efforts in developing and validating an actuarial risk assessment protocol for juvenile sex offenders using a sample of 96 adolescents that had been admitted, treated, and discharged from the Joseph J. Peters Institute. We conclude with a critical discussion of problems associated with evaluating risk in this population, and of deficiencies and revision requirements in the present protocol.

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The J-SOAP-II is an experimental scale and is the subject of ongoing research to improve reliability and further enhance predictive validity. We appreciate feedback from users about areas of ambiguity and ways to increase clarity. We are available to answer questions concerning the use of the J-SOAP, updates on validity studies, and training opportunities.

Statutory management of juvenile sexual offenders demands reliable, valid methods for assessing the risk posed by these youth. This study examined the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II using samples of adolescent and pre-adolescent boys who were wards of the Massachusetts Department of Social Services. The base rate for sexual recidivism among the adolescents (14-16%) is generally in line with what has been reported. The equivalent base rate for the pre-adolescents (25-28%), however, was notably higher. Although the J-SOAP-II was developed for adolescents, the scale also worked with the pre-adolescents in predicting sexual recidivism over 7 years, with AUC values of 0.77, 0.74, 0.77, and 0.80 for Scales 1, 3, 4, and Total among the pre-adolescents and AUC values of 0.80, 0.82, and 0.83 for Scales 1, 4, and Total among the adolescents. Discussion focuses on extant J-SOAP research and sample dependent variability, as well as social policy implications.