Abstract-In this paper, we consider a model for Dynamic Multiple Fault Diagnosis (DM F D) problem arising in online monitoring of complex systems and present a solution. This problem involves real-time inference of the most likely set of faults and their time-evolution based on blocks of unreliable test outcomes over time. In the DM F D problem, there is a finite set of mutually independent fault states, and a finite set of sensors (tests) are used to monitor their status. We model the dependency of test outcomes on the fault states via the traditional D-matrix (fault dictionary). The tests are imperfect in the sense that they can have missed detections, false alarms, or may be available asynchronously. Based on the imperfect observations over time, the problem is to identify the most likely evolution of fault states over time.The DM F D problem is an intractable NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. Consequently, we decompose the DM F D problem into a series of decoupled subproblems, one for each sample epoch. For a single epoch M F D, we develop a fast and high-quality deterministic simulated annealing method. Based on the sequential inferences, a local search and update scheme is applied to further improve the solution. Finally, we discuss how the method can be extended to dependent faults.

Abstract-Imperfect test outcomes, due to factors such as unreliable sensors, electromagnetic interference, and environmental conditions, manifest themselves as missed detections and false alarms. The main objective of our research on on-board diagnostic inference is to develop near-optimal algorithms for dynamic multiple fault diagnosis (DMFD) problems in the presence of imperfect test outcomes. Our problem is to determine the most likely evolution of fault states, the one that best explains the observed test outcomes. Here, we develop a primal-dual algorithm for solving the DMFD problem by combining Lagrangian relaxation and the Viterbi decoding algorithm in an iterative way. A novel feature of our approach is that the approximate duality gap provides a measure of suboptimality of the DMFD solution.

Test sequencing is a binary identification problem wherein one needs to develop a minimal expected cost test procedure to determine which one of a finite number of possible failure states, if any, is present. In this paper, we consider a multimode test sequencing (MMTS) problem, in which tests are distributed among multiple modes and additional transition costs will be incurred if a test sequence involves mode changes. The multimode test sequencing problem can be solved optimally via dynamic programming or AND/OR graph search methods. However, for large systems, the associated computation with dynamic programming or AND/OR graph search methods is substantial due to the rapidly increasing number of OR nodes (denoting ambiguity states and current modes) and AND nodes (denoting next modes and tests) in the search graph. In order to overcome the computational explosion, we propose to apply three heuristic algorithms based on information gain: information gain heuristic (IG), mode capability evaluation (MC), and mode capability evaluation with limited exploration of depth and degree of mode Isolation (MCLEI). We also propose to apply rollout strategies, which are guaranteed to improve the performance of heuristics, as long as the heuristics are sequentially improving. We show computational results, which suggest that the information-heuristic based rollout policies are significantly better than traditional information gain heuristic. We also show that among the three information heuristics proposed, MCLEI achieves the best tradeoff between optimality and computational complexity.

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