Levels of internal migration have declined since the 1980s in many advanced economies. Australian studies remain largely descriptive, making it difficult to ascertain the extent to which the decline in aggregate levels of migration is due to shifts in the socio‐demographic composition of the Australian population or driven by deeper behavioural changes. This paper aims to address this gap by applying an Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method to individual‐level data from the 2001 and 2016 censuses. Our results confirm the strong impact of population ageing on the decline in migration although its effect has been fully counteracted by other compositional changes such as education and immigration. We find behavioural effects to be the principal factor explaining this downward trend. This finding points to a secular shift in migration behaviour and represents a starting point in developing a more comprehensive understanding of the factors underpinning the long‐term decline in internal migration in Australia.

The last few decades have seen the intensity of internal migration decline in Australia and other advanced economies including the United States. Recent evidence suggests that changes in the composition of the population alone do not account for this persistent downward trend. This has led migration scholars to suspect that more profound behavioural changes driven by social, economic, and technological transformations are at play and that shifts in migration behaviour are likely to be reflected in changes in reasons for migration. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey to shed new light on the factors driving the decline in internal migration in Australia between 2002 and 2018. This is done by examining annual trends in self-reported reasons for intrastate and interstate migration and applying a series of pooled logistic regressions. Results reveal a decline across all reasons for migration, and not only employment-related migration contrary to explanations proposed in the extant literature. The decline in employment-related migration does not appear to be the result of a rise in alternative forms of mobility such as teleworking or substitution with inter-industry or occupation mobility. Furthermore, we also find that the negative effect of duration of residence has increased for family-related migration. Collectively, these findings suggest that behavioural change, particularly increased place attachment, may have contributed to the decline in internal migration.

Growing evidence suggests that internal migration experience shapes future internal migration behavior. However, it remains unclear what stage of the decision-making process past internal migration facilitates and whether the impact depends on the distance moved. To advance understanding of the role of past migration, we explicitly and dynamically link migration experiences to the formation and realization of future internal migration intentions by blending the aspiration–ability framework with the learned behavior hypothesis. We empirically test our proposition by fitting a series of logistic regression models to longitudinal microdata from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, which has been conducted annually since 2001. We use a two-step approach by first modeling internal migration intentions and then modeling the realization of these intentions, distinguishing between residential moves, onward interregional migration, and return interregional migration. We find that migration experience is positively associated with both the formation and realization of migration intentions and that the effect of past migration increases with the distance moved and the number of past migrations. These findings suggest that migration experiences accumulate over the life course to predispose individuals toward subsequent migration. Finally, we show that the effect of past migration is not the result of a lack of social capital among repeat migrants—a finding that reinforces the importance of conceptualizing internal migration as a life course trajectory rather than a series of discrete events.

BACKGROUNDThe life-course perspective has become one of the main paradigms in migration research, providing a rich and fruitful framework for understanding migration behavior. Despite a large literature on the association between internal migration and life-course transitions, little effort has been made to understand the impact of increasing diversity in the lifecourse trajectory of young adults on heterogeneity in migration behavior. OBJECTIVESTo address this gap, this paper seeks to establish intra-and inter-cohort variation in the occurrence, order, and timing of reasons for migrating among young adults. METHODSWe apply sequence and cluster analysis to self-reported reasons for migrating collected from 2002 to 2019 as part of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey and follow two cohorts of young adults born between 1982-1984 and 1990-1992 over 10 years. We distinguish between education, employment, family, housing, amenity, lifestyle, and health migration. RESULTSSequence analysis reveals diversity in individual migration trajectories, shaped by the number and timing of migrations and the type of reason. Intra-cohort variation is manifested by the delineation of five distinct migration clusters, while inter-cohort change is most visible in the growing share of young adults that follow diverse and delayed migration trajectories.

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