Decline in internal migration levels in Australia: Compositional or behavioural effect?

Abstract

Levels of internal migration have declined since the 1980s in many advanced economies. Australian studies remain largely descriptive, making it difficult to ascertain the extent to which the decline in aggregate levels of migration is due to shifts in the socio‐demographic composition of the Australian population or driven by deeper behavioural changes. This paper aims to address this gap by applying an Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method to individual‐level data from the 2001 and 2016 censuses. Our results confirm the strong impact of population ageing on the decline in migration although its effect has been fully counteracted by other compositional changes such as education and immigration. We find behavioural effects to be the principal factor explaining this downward trend. This finding points to a secular shift in migration behaviour and represents a starting point in developing a more comprehensive understanding of the factors underpinning the long‐term decline in internal migration in Australia.

Understanding internal migration trends in OECD countries

“…A 1% reduction in the proportion of young adults decreases the intensity of interregional migration by 0.72% in the long run. This is an expected finding because this age group is the most mobile (Bernard et al, 2014; Rogers & Castro, 1981), and it is consistent with previous findings of population ageing exerting downward pressure on internal migration (Cooke, 2011; Kalemba et al, 2020; Karahan & Rhee, 2014).…”

“…In the United States, population ageing is estimated to account from 10 (Cooke, 2011; Foster, 2017) to 50% (Karahan & Rhee, 2014) of the decline in interstate migration depending on the period and method of analysis. In Australia, increases in the share of the population aged 45 and over have contributed to over 30% of the decline in interstate migration (Kalemba et al, 2020). In Sweden, however, the influence of population ageing on long‐distance migration has been more limited (Shuttleworth et al, 2018).…”

“…Cooke (2013) found the rise in the share of dual‐worker households to be a key factor, whereas Foster (2017) found its effect on migration intensity to be negligible. In Australia, the rise in dual‐earner couples with tertiary education has contributed to only 6% of the fall in interstate migration in the last 15 years (Kalemba et al, 2020). The effects of family connections can persist even after union dissolution.…”

“…Education lowers migration costs and boosts potential economic returns to migration (Greenwood, 1997; Quinn & Rubb, 2005). In the United States (Foster, 2017) and Australia (Kalemba et al, 2020), the increase in the share of individuals with tertiary education has partly offset the decline in internal migration caused by other sociodemographic transitions. Combined with an increase in the proportion of mobile groups such as renters and single adults, these compositional changes have more than fully compensated for the depressing effect of ageing (Kalemba et al, 2020; Shuttleworth et al, 2018), which points to a secular shift in migration behaviour.…”

Staying and immobility: new concepts in population geography? A literature review

“…Kalemba et al (2020) support a shift in (internal) migration behaviour in Australia beside a strong impact of population ageing (Kalemba et al, 2020). Changing migration behaviour is influenced by the rise in ICT, with the consequence that a job change no longer automatically has to lead to a change in residence (Cooke, 2013;Kesselring, 2006). This allows residential rootedness and migration to be substituted with other forms of (virtual) mobility (Cooke and Shuttleworth, 2018), such as seasonal mobility, (long-distance) commuting, or multi-local living patterns (Povrzanović Frykman et al, 2020).…”