Abstract. This paper describes the statistical analysis of annual trends in long term datasets of greenhouse gas measurements taken over ten or more years. The analysis technique employs a bootstrap resampling method to determine both the long-term and intra-annual variability of the datasets, together with the uncertainties on the trend values. The method has been applied to data from a European network of groundbased solar FTIR instruments to determine the trends in the tropospheric, stratospheric and total columns of ozone, nitrous oxide, carbon monoxide, methane, ethane and HCFC-22. The suitability of the method has been demonstrated through statistical validation of the technique, and comparison with ground-based in-situ measurements and 3-D atmospheric models.
Abstract. The sensitivity of ground-based instruments measuring in the infrared with respect to tropospheric water vapour content is generally limited to the lower and middle troposphere. The large vertical gradients and variabilities avoid a better sensitivity for the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region. In this work an optimised retrieval is presented and it is demonstrated that compared to a commonly applied method, it improves the performance of the FTIR technique. The reasons for this improvement and the possible deficiencies of the method are discussed. Only by applying the method proposed here and using measurements performed at mountain observatories can water vapour variabilities in the UT/LS be detected in a self-consistent manner. The precision, expressed as noise to signal ratio, is estimated at 45%. In the middle and lower troposphere, precisions of 22% are achieved. These estimations are confirmed by a comparison of retrieval results based on real FTIR measurements with coinciding measurements of synoptical meteorological radiosondes.
Abstract. Time series of total column abundances of hydrogen chloride (HCl), chlorine nitrate (ClONO2), and hydrogen fluoride (HF) were determined from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra recorded at 17 sites belonging to the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and located between 80.05° N and 77.82° S. By providing such a near-global overview on ground-based measurements of the two major stratospheric chlorine reservoir species, HCl and ClONO2, the present study is able to confirm the decrease of the atmospheric inorganic chlorine abundance during the last few years. This decrease is expected following the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments, where restrictions and a subsequent phase-out of the prominent anthropogenic chlorine source gases (solvents, chlorofluorocarbons) were agreed upon to enable a stabilisation and recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. The atmospheric fluorine content is expected to be influenced by the Montreal Protocol, too, because most of the banned anthropogenic gases also represent important fluorine sources. But many of the substitutes to the banned gases also contain fluorine so that the HF total column abundance is expected to have continued to increase during the last few years. The measurements are compared with calculations from five different models: the two-dimensional Bremen model, the two chemistry-transport models KASIMA and SLIMCAT, and the two chemistry-climate models EMAC and SOCOL. Thereby, the ability of the models to reproduce the absolute total column amounts, the seasonal cycles, and the temporal evolution found in the FTIR measurements is investigated and inter-compared. This is especially interesting because the models have different architectures. The overall agreement between the measurements and models for the total column abundances and the seasonal cycles is good. Linear trends of HCl, ClONO2, and HF are calculated from both measurement and model time series data, with a focus on the time range 2000–2009. This period is chosen because from most of the measurement sites taking part in this study, data are available during these years. The precision of the trends is estimated with the bootstrap resampling method. The sensitivity of the trend results with respect to the fitting function, the time of year chosen and time series length is investigated, as well as a bias due to the irregular sampling of the measurements. The measurements and model results investigated here agree qualitatively on a decrease of the chlorine species by around 1% yr−1. The models simulate an increase of HF of around 1% yr−1. This also agrees well with most of the measurements, but some of the FTIR series in the Northern Hemisphere show a stabilisation or even a decrease in the last few years. In general, for all three gases, the measured trends vary more strongly with latitude and hemisphere than the modelled trends. Relative to the FTIR measurements, the models tend to underestimate the decreasing chlorine trends and to overestimate the fluorine increase in the Northern Hemisphere. At most sites, the models simulate a stronger decrease of ClONO2 than of HCl. In the FTIR measurements, this difference between the trends of HCl and ClONO2 depends strongly on latitude, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.
The comparison to ACE satellite observations exhibits only a small negative bias of MIPAS which appears not to be significant. The independent satellite instruments HALOE, SAGE II, and POAM III confirm in common for the spring-summer time period a negative bias of MIPAS in the Arctic and a positive bias in the Antarctic middle and upper stratosphere exceeding frequently the combined systematic error limits. In contrast to the ESA operational processor, the IMK/IAA retrieval code allows accurate inference of NO 2 volume mixing ratios under consideration of all important non-LTE proCorrespondence to: G. Wetzel (gerald.wetzel@imk.fzk.de) cesses. Large differences between both retrieval results appear especially at higher altitudes, above about 50 to 55 km. These differences might be explained at least partly by non-LTE under polar winter conditions but not at mid-latitudes. Below this altitude region mean differences between both processors remain within 5% (during night) and up to 10% (during day) under undisturbed (September 2002) conditions and up to 40% under perturbed polar night conditions (February and March 2004). The intercomparison of ground-based NDACC observations shows no significant bias between the FTIR measurements in Kiruna (68 • N) and MIPAS in summer 2003 but larger deviations in autumn and winter. The mean deviation over the whole comparison period remains within 10%. A mean negative bias of 15% for MIPAS daytime and 8% for nighttime observations has been determined for UV-vis comparisons over Harestua (60 • N). Results of a pole-to-pole comparison of ground-based DOAS/UV-visible sunrise and MIPAS mid-morning column data has shown that the mean agreement in 2003 falls within the accuracy limit of the comparison method. Altogether, it can be indicated that MIPAS NO 2 profiles yield valuable information on the vertical distribution of NO 2 in the lower and middle stratosphere (below about 45 km) during day and night with an overall accuracy of about 10-20% and a precision of typically 5-15% such that the data are useful for scientific studies. In cases where extremely high NO 2 occurs in the mesosphere (polar winter) retrieval results in the lower and middle stratosphere are less accurate than under undisturbed atmospheric conditions.
of the observed column ratio (C1ONO2 + HC1)/HF as an indicator for chlorine activation. Current measurement uncertainties limit the degree of activation which can be unambiguously detected using this observed quantity, but we can determine that chlorine-activated air was observed above Aberdeen (58øN) on 6 days in late
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