Previous reports have suggested that T. orientalis group species may be non-pathogenic in healthy cattle, and an incidental finding in blood samples. However, this investigation provided evidence that in New Zealand, this pathogen is capable of causing clinical disease in cattle not necessarily debilitated by another disease. The potential for disease should be considered when naive cattle are brought in from non-endemic to endemic regions, for instance cattle from the South Island moved to regions where the vector for T. orientalis group species, Haemaphysalis longicornis, is active, and T. orientalis is present.

Simulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with 'stamping-out' of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the 'stamping-out' strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

The study confirmed that small backyard poultry flocks located near waterfowl habitats were exposed to non-notifiable low-pathogenic AI viruses. Findings indicate a number of potential risk pathways for the transmission of AI viruses between wild birds and non-commercial poultry, and hence the need for continued surveillance for AI in backyard flocks and wild birds in New Zealand.

A case-control study was conducted among commercial table-egg layer and pullet operations in Iowa and Nebraska, United States, to investigate potential risk factors for infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2. A questionnaire was developed and administered to 28 case farms and 31 control farms. Data were collected at the farm and barn levels, enabling two separate analyses to be performed-the first a farm-level comparison of case farms vs. control farms, and the second a barn-level comparison between case barns on case farms and control barns on control farms. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit using a forward-selection procedure. Key risk factors identified were farm location in an existing control zone, rendering and garbage trucks coming near barns, dead-bird disposal located near barns, and visits by a company service person. Variables associated with a decreased risk of infection included visitors changing clothing, cleaning and disinfecting a hard-surface barn entryway, and ceiling/eaves ventilation in barns.

Disease managers face many challenges when deciding on the most effective control strategy to manage an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Decisions have to be made under conditions of uncertainty and where the situation is continually evolving. In addition, resources for control are often limited. A modeling study was carried out to identify characteristics measurable during the early phase of a FMD outbreak that might be useful as predictors of the total number of infected places, outbreak duration, and the total area under control (AUC). The study involved two modeling platforms in two countries (Australia and New Zealand) and encompassed a large number of incursion scenarios. Linear regression, classification and regression tree, and boosted regression tree analyses were used to quantify the predictive value of a set of parameters on three outcome variables of interest: the total number of infected places, outbreak duration, and the total AUC. The number of infected premises (IPs), number of pending culls, AUC, estimated dissemination ratio, and cattle density around the index herd at days 7, 14, and 21 following first detection were associated with each of the outcome variables. Regression models for the size of the AUC had the highest predictive value (R2 = 0.51–0.9) followed by the number of IPs (R2 = 0.3–0.75) and outbreak duration (R2 = 0.28–0.57). Predictability improved at later time points in the outbreak. Predictive regression models using various cut-points at day 14 to define small and large outbreaks had positive predictive values of 0.85–0.98 and negative predictive values of 0.52–0.91, with 79–97% of outbreaks correctly classified. On the strict assumption that each of the simulation models used in this study provide a realistic indication of the spread of FMD in animal populations. Our conclusion is that relatively simple metrics available early in a control program can be used to indicate the likely magnitude of an FMD outbreak under Australian and New Zealand conditions.