No abstract

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

Insect pollinators are a key component of biodiversity; they also play a major role in the reproduction of many species of wild plants and crops. It is widely acknowledged that insect pollinators are threatened by many environmental pressures, mostly of anthropogenic nature. Their decline is a global phenomenon. A better understanding of their distribution can help their monitoring and ultimately facilitate conservation actions. Since we only have partial knowledge of where pollinator species occur, the possibility to predict suitable environmental conditions from scattered species records can facilitate not only species monitoring, but also the identification of areas potentially vulnerable to pollinators decline. This data paper contains the predicted distribution of 47 species of bumblebees across the 28 Member States of the European Union (EU-28). Amongst the wild pollinators, bumblebees are one of the major groups contributing to the production of many crop species, hence their decline in Europe, North America and Asia can potentially threaten food security. Predictions were derived from distribution models, using species records with a spatial resolution of 10 km accessed from a central repository. Predictions were based on records from 1991 to 2012 and on a series of spatial environmental predictors from three main thematic areas: land use and land cover, climate and topography. These distributions were used to estimate the value of pollination as an ecosystem service. In light of the recent European Pollinators Initiative, this paper provides valuable information for a better understanding of where wild pollinators occur and it should be extended to other pollinator species.

Abstract.Responses of insects to recent climate change have been well documented in a number of taxa, but not in wasps. This study examined shifts in phenology of the two most important wasp species (Vespa crabro and Vespula germanica) in Poland over the last three decades. Both species showed similar temporal trends, advancing their phenology after the early 1980s, but this pattern was detected only for workers not for the appearance of queens. The appearance times for V. germanica were negatively related to mean April temperature, appearing earlier in years with warmer springs, and positively related to precipitation in April. The studied species advanced aspects of their phenology, but linking this to temperature was not achieved for V. crabro suggesting that we have to pay more attention to the life history traits of the study organisms. 203* Corresponding author: thsparks@btopenworld.com its nests in hollow trees. Nests are also found in thatched roofs, barns, attics, hollow walls of houses, and abandoned beehives. While impressive due to their size and loudness, European hornets are in fact much less aggressive than V. germanica. While not aggressive when encountered far from the nest, multiple workers will vigorously defend the nest if provoked. As for all wasps, the colonies die out in winter. Only fertilized females overwinter, founding new colonies close to their winter shelter. Queens appear from mid-April, workers are active until mid-October.As was mentioned earlier, V. germanica and V. crabro have a range of potential economic and health impacts. The wasps make holes in ripe fruit to obtain sugar, scrape off the tender bark of young trees to obtain construction material and sugary sap. In summer and autumn, they can raid beehives and enters dwellings in the search for sugary foodstuffs for nourishment and for meat to feed the larvae. European wasps are also great scavengers and are usually found around areas of human habitation and activity. This is why they can be a major social pest as they disrupt people's enjoyment of the outdoors (Beggs, 2000). Furthermore they can also inflict dangerous stings (McGain et al., 2000). Most serious reactions to wasp stings are allergic in nature, so that only a small percentage of the human population is at risk. The severe allergic reaction (called anaphylactic shock) can be fatal unless treated promptly.The main goals of this paper are to determine the phenology and the duration of wasp flight periods during the last three decades, identify potential links to meteorological factors such as temperature and rainfall, and discuss observed changes of importance to human society. MATERIAL AND METHODS Study area and wasp countsThe research on social wasps in the agricultural landscape of Kujawy (52.5°N, 18.7°E) was conducted in the vicinity of Strzelno ca. 20 km south of the town of Inowroc aw from April to October in 1981October in -2009. During this research, observations and capture of wasps were carried out along transects of 4-6 km length running through the s...

This study examined shifts over a 35-year period in the phenology of the four most important bumblebee species (Bombus terrestris , B. lapidarius , B. pascuorum and B. hortorum) in Central Europe. The species showed similar temporal trends, significantly advancing components of their main flight period in association with rising temperatures such that, for example, mid-dates of the main flight period advanced by 10-23 days over the study period. Drivers of this change differed between the four species. Trends in, and drivers of, the timing of first queens, first workers and first males were less consistent. Aspects of the phenology of the least common species, B. hortorum , were up to a month earlier than the other species and climatic effects less clear cut. There were some suggestions of differences between species trends. These results stress the importance of considering changes and drivers of change for the Bombus family on a species-specific basis with the need to pay more attention to the life history traits of the study organisms.