The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological and socio-economic system feedbacks. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.

To Whom It May Concern We have extensively revised the manuscript 'Global coastal wetland change under sealevel rise and related stresses: the DIVA Wetland Change Model' by Spencer and coauthors, for further consideration for publication in Global and Planetary Change. We believe that we have addressed all the comments and queries raised by the reviewers in detail and in full. Our 'response to referees' indicates where on a manuscript the responses have been made. We believe that these responses have resulted in a significantly improved paper and we thank the referees and the editorial team for the opportunity to respond to the criticism of the original submission. We maintain the separation of the general narrative from a more specific set of technical issues raised in the supplementary material; we believe that this decision helps meet the journal's concern to present problems and results in a way that is suitable for a broad readership. However, for ease of review we include the Supplementary Material at the end of the revised manuscript. The manuscript has been prepared to conform to the instructions for contributors. This material has not been previously published elsewhere, nor is it under consideration for publication elsewhere. All the authors have approved this submission. There are no closely related manuscripts that have been submitted or are in press. As far as I am aware, there are no actual or potential conflicts of interest, of a financial, personal or other kind, with other people or organizations that could inappropriately influence, or be perceived to influence, this work. No funding source has had any involvement in the study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of the data, in the writing of the manuscript and in the decision to submit the paper for publication.

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The storm surge event that affected the coastal margins of the southern North Sea on 5-6 December 2013 produced the highest still water levels on record at several tide gauges on the UK east coast. On east-facing coasts south of the Humber estuary and north-facing Norfolk, water levels were higher than in the twentieth century benchmark surge event of 31 January-1 February 1953. Maximum significant wave heights were highest off the North Norfolk coast (peak H s = 3.8 m offshore, 2.9 m inshore) and lowest off the Suffolk coast (H s = 1.5-1.8 m inshore); comparable offshore wave heights in 1953 were 7-8 m and ca. 3 m. The lower wave heights, and their short duration, in 2013 explain both localised breaching, overtopping, and back-barrier flooding associated with gravel ridges and relatively low earthen banks as well as the lack of failure in more highly-engineered coastal defences. On barrier coasts and within estuaries, the signal of maximum runup was highly variable, reflecting the modification of the tide-surge-wave signal by inshore bathymetry and the presence of a range of coastal ecosystems. The landscape impacts of the December 2013 surge included the notching of soft rock cliffs and cliffline retreat; erosion of coastal dunes; and the augmentation or re-activation of barrier island washover deposits. Whilst surge event-related cliff retreat on the rapidly eroding cliffs of the Suffolk coast lay within the natural variability in inter-annual rates of retreat, the impact of the surge on upper beach/sand dune margins produced a pulse of shoreline translation landwards equivalent to about 10 years of 'normal' shoreline retreat. The study of east coast surges over the last 60 years, and the identification of significant phases of landscape change -such as periods of rapid soft rock cliff retreat and the formation of new gravel washovers on barrier islands -points to the importance of high water levels being accompanied by high wave activity. Future developments in early warning systems and evacuation planning require information on the variable impacts of such extreme events.