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Abstract:The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system will change temperature and precipitation distributions across the globe. This will affect the hydrological cycle and, therefore, the hydrology of river basins worldwide. In this study, we model the stream flow of the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB), Thailand, in response to two climate change projection data sets under scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. We used Japan Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) atmospheric general circulation model 3.1 and 3.2 output data as input to a watershed hydrologic model to assess the impact of climate change for the basin. We found that, in the future, the mean annual river discharge is likely to increase in the CPRB due to increased rainfall. Furthermore, increases in annual maximum daily flows will occur toward the end of the 21st century.

The Chao Phraya River basin, the largest basin in Thailand, is located in the centre of the northern part of the country. This basin has two large-scale reservoirs: the Bhumibol Reservoir on the Ping River and the Sirikit Reservoir on the Nan River. A comparison of the annual and monthly flow regimes downstream from the reservoirs before and after reservoir development showed a constant increase in low flow and a drastic decrease in high flow. The spectrum of the daily discharge was analysed using the fast Fourier transform on data collected in the area of Nakhon Sawan and immediately downstream from the Bhumibol Reservoir after the reservoir was constructed. The flow at Nakhon Sawan had a periodic characteristic of 7 days. The water released from the Bhumibol Reservoir at hydrological station P.12 also had a periodic characteristic of 7 days. Reservoir operations have a significant impact on the hydrological cycles. The effect of human activities is evident in the spectrum analysis of recorded historical discharge data.

Thailand plays a central economic and policy-making role in Southeast Asia. Although climate change adaptation is being mainstreamed in Thailand, a well-organized overview of the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation measures has been unavailable to date. Here we present a comprehensive review of climate-change impact studies that focused on the Thai water sector, based on a literature review of six sub-sectors: riverine hydrology, sediment erosion, coastal erosion, forest hydrology, agricultural hydrology, and urban hydrology. Our review examined the long-term availability of observational data, historical changes, projected changes in key variables, and the availability of economic assessments and their implications for adaptation actions. Although some basic hydrometeorological variables have been well monitored, specific historical changes due to climate change have seldom been detected. Furthermore, although numerous future projections have been proposed, the likely changes due to climate change remain unclear due to a general lack of systematic multi-model and multi-scenario assessments and limited spatiotemporal coverage of the study area. Several gaps in the research were identified, and ten research recommendations are presented. While the information contained herein contributes to state-of-the-art knowledge on the impact of climate change on the water sector in Thailand, it will also benefit other countries on the Indochina Peninsula with a similar climate.

Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.