An ensemble of three 40-year parallel simulations was performed using a T42 ALCM version of the Japan Meteorological Agency global model to answer the question why extraordinary cool and hot summers in East Asia, especially Japan and Korea, tend to occur very frequently in recent years from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. Three independent long-term integrations from January 1955 to December 1994 were forced by the same SST boundary condition observed on the global scale.Our AGCM simulations employing prescribed observed SSTs were successful in reproducing extratropical circulation anomalies that bring about the decadal-scale amplitude modulation of interannual variations of summer mean temperatures in the vicinity of Japan. During the period from the beginning of 1980s to the early 1990s, the interannual variability of the east-west gradient of summertime SST anomalies between the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific east of the Philippines became appreciably large, was accompanied by anomalous cumulus convection around the Philippines, and its phases coincided quite well with those of model-simulated lower-tropospheric geopotential height variations near Japan. The anomalous convective heating substantially affected summertime lower tropospheric circulation anomalies in East Asia through the dynamic process of the excitation of PJ teleconnection pattern (Nitta, 1987). The anomalous SST forcing from the tropics is crucially responsible for the frequent occurrence of extreme cool and hot summers in Japan and Korea from the late 1970s to the early 1990s.The presence of strong east-west gradient of SST anomalies across the Philippines is primarily attributed to the significant coupling of weak (strong) South Asian summer monsoon and the warm (cold) episode of ENSO. The warm episodes that occurred during the period from the late 1970s to the early 1990s are appreciably different from a typical model of El Nino event exemplified by Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982) in terms of seasonal evolution. It is anticipated that both unusually persistent ENSO signals from the preceding winter until summer and the associated South Asian summer monsoon activity strongly regulate the formation of the east-west SST gradient near the Philippines in boreal summer.

An unusually prolonged foehn was observed at Toyama in the Hokuriku district, located on the coast of the Sea of Japan of central Japan, from 30 July to 3 August 1999. A 5-day foehn is extraordinarily persistent and was not observed during the 24-year period 1975-1998, which makes the 1999 summer quite exceptional. While an anticyclone east of Japan is intensified over the 5-day period, a combination of the anticyclone with a rapidly developing cyclone over southeastern Siberia and a typhoon migrating northward into the East China Sea induces a definite intensification of southerly geostrophic winds over central Japan, a favorable condition for the occurrence of unusually prolonged foehn.Observational and model results show that on a monthly mean basis, a noticeable east-west pressure gradient around Japan is present due to the prominence of the Pacific and Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern in response to tropical convective heating, resulting in reinforcing southerly geostrophic winds across central Japan. Once large-scale circulation anomalies are initiated and sustained as a result of such an extratropical response, the development and movement of adjacent synoptic-scale disturbances are largely regulated by those anomalies. A combined effect of the excitation of the PJ pattern and associated synoptic-scale disturbances is crucial for the extraordinary persistence of foehn along the coast of the Sea of Japan. The PJ pattern that appeared in July 1999 has an unusual geographical location and configuration because enhanced cumulus convection over the warm pool region of the western North Pacific is significantly displaced about 20 westward and 2-3 northward, compared to the typical hot summer that Japan experiences. This displacement is presumably attributed to a similar shift of distinctive warm SST anomalies over the warm pool region.

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